Exploring the use of dual-processing in commercial property development decision-making under conditions of risk and uncertainty

IF 16.4 1区 化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
Simon Robson, P. Greenhalgh
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

PurposeCommercial property development builds floor space in anticipation of potential, but unknown, future demand, making it particularly prone to risk and uncertainty. The research explores the degree to which property developer decision-making is objective and rational and the degree to which it relies on behavioural instincts and intuition. Decision-making theory, including heuristics, is considered and its prevalence in the field of commercial property development is examined.Design/methodology/approachA “dual-processing” decision-making model, comprising intuitive System 1 and objective System 2 processing, is proposed and tested. Inductive research using template analysis of interviews, with “high status” commercial property developers, explored whether the model offers an accurate representation of developers' behaviour and effective lens through which to examine decisions made under conditions of risk and uncertainty.FindingsParticipants believed they adopted objective and rational approaches to complex commercial property development decisions. Analysis of interviews reveals that System 1 heuristics and intuition play significant roles in decision-making behaviour, leading to potential bias and systematic error. The research concludes that the dual-processing model provides a useful lens through which to better understand the decision-making approach adopted by commercial property developers.Originality/valueThe research represents the rare application of behavioural theory to the realm of commercial property development and provides new and original insight as to how important investment decisions are made under conditions of risk and uncertainty, with implications for professional practice.
风险和不确定性条件下双重处理在商业地产开发决策中的应用探讨
目的商业房地产开发为预期潜在但未知的未来需求而建造占地空间,使其特别容易出现风险和不确定性。该研究探讨了房地产开发商决策的客观和理性程度,以及它在多大程度上依赖于行为本能和直觉。考虑了包括启发式在内的决策理论,并考察了其在商业地产开发领域的普遍性。设计/方法论/方法提出并测试了“双重处理”决策模型,包括直观的系统1和客观的系统2处理。通过对“高地位”商业地产开发商的访谈模板分析进行归纳研究,探讨了该模型是否准确地反映了开发商的行为,以及在风险和不确定性条件下审查决策的有效视角。调查结果参与者认为,他们对复杂的商业地产开发决策采取了客观合理的方法。访谈分析表明,系统1启发式和直觉在决策行为中发挥着重要作用,导致潜在的偏见和系统错误。研究得出结论,双重处理模型提供了一个有用的视角,通过它可以更好地理解商业地产开发商所采用的决策方法。独创性/价值这项研究代表了行为理论在商业地产开发领域的罕见应用,并为在风险和不确定性条件下做出重要投资决策提供了新的、独创的见解,对专业实践具有启示。
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来源期刊
Accounts of Chemical Research
Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合
CiteScore
31.40
自引率
1.10%
发文量
312
审稿时长
2 months
期刊介绍: Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.
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