Economic impacts of the Black Sea Grain Initiative

Abstract

In this research, we use econometric analysis to estimate the impacts of the Black Sea Grain Initiative on international wheat and corn prices. Using these results, we assess the economic value of the treaty to the global food system, as well as the regional distribution of the associated welfare savings. We find that the Russian Invasion created economic costs of approximately $116.05 billion in the global wheat and corn markets. In the international wheat market, the Black Sea Grain Initiative reduced prices by 7.9%, offsetting approximately $21.48 billion of these costs. The largest winners from the Initiative outside Ukraine are primarily in the developing world, particularly in the Middle East and North Africa. We do not observe any economically meaningful impacts of the Initiative in the international corn market.