The global impact and heterogeneity of China's climate policies

Abstract

To quantify the impacts of China's climate mitigation policies on other nations, we use the multi-regional input-output model and the world input-output database (WIOD) 2014 to create several policy scenarios in this study. The results reveal that China's economic restructuring and emission intensity reduction policies reflect significant heterogeneity from both regional and sectoral perspectives. In absolute terms, developed countries have larger economic consequences and emission reductions than underdeveloped countries. In relative terms, the United States will lose only 0.1% of its GDP as China transitions to a services-driven economy by 2030, making it one of the least impacted countries. Countries like Australia and South Korea, which rely heavily on raw materials and China's traditional economic structure, would see their GDP shrink by 1.2–1.7% by 2030. It is worth noting that the central and eastern European countries have an obvious low-income - low-emissions agglomeration, and the potential for emission reductions in these countries needs to be further investigated. The most carbon-efficient industries are education and health care. Therefore, more investment in these relevant industries should be made in the coming decade to minimize the increase in carbon emissions associated with trade flows growth.