Assessment of Land - Use Change Effects on Future Beekeeping Suitability Via CA-Markov Prediction Model

Abstract

Abstract In this study, landuse changes in the Muğla province were determined and future Land Use Cover Change (LUCC) maps were predicted. Because Muğla accounts for 90% of pine honey production in the world, the study area has vital importance for the Turkish (also for other countries) beekeeping sector and this importance reveals the necessity of both monitoring and predicting the LUCC of Muğla in future. This study demonstrates a combined CA-Markov land use change model and beekeeping suitability analysis via Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) to predict the future of beekeeping suitability in Muğla in the Geographical Information Systems (GIS) platform. 2006 and 2012 LUCC maps were used to predict the 2018 LUCC, and transition probabilities between land cover classes were analyzed. A recent 2018 LUCC map was used to demonstrate accuracy analysis of the predicted 2018 LUCC map. Considering the 0.96 Kappa accuracy, a good fit was determined and the CA-Markov model was used to predict the 2025, 2030, 2040 and 2050 LUCC maps. Moreover, using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), beekeeping suitability assessment was generated. The results indicate that there will be a considerable increase in the urban areas and decrease in grasslands in the future. Related to this, the suitable areas will be decreased by 50 km2 and non-suitable areas will be increased by 76 km2 from 2018 to 2050. The study simulated the beekeeping suitability to guide beekeepers and local authorities towards a better understanding of the reasons for decreasing suitability and developing urgent land use management systems.