Pathways to democracy after authoritarian breakdown: Comparative case selection and lessons from the past

IF 2.3 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

International Political Science Review Pub Date : 2022-12-15 DOI:10.1177/01925121221138408

Jean Lachapelle, S. Hellmeier

{"title":"Pathways to democracy after authoritarian breakdown: Comparative case selection and lessons from the past","authors":"Jean Lachapelle, S. Hellmeier","doi":"10.1177/01925121221138408","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Mass movements that are able to overthrow a dictator do not always lead to democracy. Transition periods present narrow windows of opportunity in which activists face difficult decisions to build democracy and prevent authoritarian relapse. Existing scholarship offers limited guidance for pro-democracy forces because it focuses on unchangeable structural factors and cases with a known outcome. We propose an innovative approach for finding informative comparisons for ongoing transitions after authoritarian breakdowns. We quantify the similarity between all breakdowns caused by mass uprisings since 1945 based on their structural preconditions. We then apply our approach to Sudan’s ongoing transition and draw lessons from two similar cases: the Philippines in 1986 (successful democratization); and Burma/Myanmar in 1988 (failed democratization). Our analysis shows that structural factors are weak predictors of transition outcomes and that Sudan shares characteristics with cases of both failed and successful democratization. Therefore, democratic transition appears possible in Sudan.","PeriodicalId":47785,"journal":{"name":"International Political Science Review","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3000,"publicationDate":"2022-12-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"International Political Science Review","FirstCategoryId":"90","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1177/01925121221138408","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"POLITICAL SCIENCE","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Mass movements that are able to overthrow a dictator do not always lead to democracy. Transition periods present narrow windows of opportunity in which activists face difficult decisions to build democracy and prevent authoritarian relapse. Existing scholarship offers limited guidance for pro-democracy forces because it focuses on unchangeable structural factors and cases with a known outcome. We propose an innovative approach for finding informative comparisons for ongoing transitions after authoritarian breakdowns. We quantify the similarity between all breakdowns caused by mass uprisings since 1945 based on their structural preconditions. We then apply our approach to Sudan’s ongoing transition and draw lessons from two similar cases: the Philippines in 1986 (successful democratization); and Burma/Myanmar in 1988 (failed democratization). Our analysis shows that structural factors are weak predictors of transition outcomes and that Sudan shares characteristics with cases of both failed and successful democratization. Therefore, democratic transition appears possible in Sudan.

查看原文本刊更多论文

威权主义崩溃后通往民主的道路:比较案例选择和过去的教训

能够推翻独裁者的群众运动并不总能带来民主。在过渡时期，活动人士面临着建立民主和防止独裁复辟的艰难抉择。现有的学术研究对支持民主的力量提供的指导有限，因为它关注的是不可改变的结构性因素和已知结果的案例。我们提出了一种创新的方法来寻找专制崩溃后正在进行的过渡的信息比较。我们根据其结构前提，量化了1945年以来由大规模起义引起的所有崩溃之间的相似性。然后，我们将我们的方法应用于苏丹正在进行的过渡，并从两个类似的案例中吸取教训:1986年的菲律宾(成功的民主化);1988年的缅甸(民主化失败)。我们的分析表明，结构性因素是过渡结果的弱预测因素，苏丹与民主化失败和成功的案例都有共同的特点。因此，民主过渡在苏丹看来是可能的。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

求助全文

约1分钟内获得全文求助全文

来源期刊

International Political Science Review POLITICAL SCIENCE-

CiteScore

5.60

自引率

4.50%

发文量

期刊介绍： IPSR is committed to publishing material that makes a significant contribution to international political science. It seeks to meet the needs of political scientists throughout the world who are interested in studying political phenomena in the contemporary context of increasing international interdependence and global change. IPSR reflects the aims and intellectual tradition of its parent body, the International Political Science Association: to foster the creation and dissemination of rigorous political inquiry free of subdisciplinary or other orthodoxy.