A systematic review and Bayesian meta-analysis about Salmonella spp. prevalence on raw chicken meat

IF 3 4区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Microbial Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2022-08-01 DOI:10.1016/j.mran.2022.100205

Claudia Titze Hessel , Eduardo de Freitas Costa , Roberta Taufer Boff , João Pedro Pessoa , Eduardo Cesar Tondo

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引用次数: 1

Abstract

Salmonellosis involving chicken meat is one of the most frequent foodborne diseases registered worldwide. Many studies report the prevalence of Salmonella spp. on chicken meat; however, data are limited or variable. To perform stochastic Quantitative Microbial Risk Analysis, it is essential to input reliable data to estimate the risks, and the Bayesian meta-analysis model allows incorporating the uncertainty of the data into parameters which increases the robustness of the model. In this manuscript, we conduct a systematic review and a logit-normal hierarchical Bayesian meta-analysis model to assess the posterior distribution of Salmonella spp. prevalence of raw chicken meat. The posterior distribution of Salmonella spp. was reported according to carcass processing (whole carcass or cuts); cold status (fresh meat or frozen); place of sampling (retail or slaughterhouse), and geographical region (Brazil, Latin America, North America, Africa, Asia, and Europe). To implement the posterior distribution as uncertainty in stochastic a model, parameters were obtained by linear combination of the posterior distributions of the model. The percentual of variation regarding the heterogeneity between studies is 33.93%. Carcass processing and cold status do not influence Salmonella spp. prevalence. Raw chicken meat collected at slaughterhouses had a 4% higher chance of being positive for Salmonella spp. than those taken at retail. However, this small difference seems to be of minor relevance given the large 95% credible interval around the parameter. The posterior distribution shows lower Salmonella spp. prevalence for Latin America, Brazil, Africa, Europe when compared to North America and Asia. In the sensitivity analysis, the parameters $β_{c o l d}$ , $β_{s a m p l e}$ , and $β_{p r o c e s s i n g}$ were weakly influenced by the priors, however, the relevance of the priors was more evident for the geographic region related parameters. Salmonella Enteritidis was the most widespread serovar identified and only three studies verified the concentration of Salmonella spp. but we were not able to conduct a meta-analysis because the studies omitted the standard deviation.

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生鸡肉中沙门氏菌流行率的系统评价和贝叶斯元分析

涉及鸡肉的沙门氏菌病是全世界登记的最常见的食源性疾病之一。许多研究报告沙门氏菌在鸡肉上的流行;然而，数据是有限的或可变的。为了进行随机定量微生物风险分析，必须输入可靠的数据来估计风险，贝叶斯元分析模型允许将数据的不确定性纳入参数，从而增加模型的鲁棒性。在这篇论文中，我们进行了一项系统综述和一个对数正态层次贝叶斯元分析模型来评估沙门氏菌在生鸡肉中的后验分布。沙门氏菌的后验分布根据胴体加工(整胴体或切块)进行报告;冷态(鲜肉或冷冻);采样地点(零售或屠宰场)和地理区域(巴西、拉丁美洲、北美、非洲、亚洲和欧洲)。为了实现随机a模型的后验分布作为不确定性，对模型的后验分布进行线性组合得到参数。研究间异质性变异百分率为33.93%。胴体加工和冷藏状态不影响沙门氏菌的流行。在屠宰场收集的生鸡肉比在零售场所收集的生鸡肉沙门氏菌阳性的几率高4%。然而，考虑到参数周围95%的大可信区间，这个小差异似乎无关紧要。后验分布显示，与北美和亚洲相比，拉丁美洲、巴西、非洲和欧洲的沙门氏菌患病率较低。在敏感性分析中，β冷、β样品和β加工参数受先验影响较弱，而地理区域相关参数的先验相关性更为明显。肠炎沙门氏菌是发现的最广泛的血清型，只有三个研究证实了沙门氏菌的浓度，但我们无法进行荟萃分析，因为这些研究忽略了标准差。

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来源期刊

Microbial Risk Analysis Medicine-Microbiology (medical)

CiteScore

5.70

自引率

7.10%

发文量

审稿时长

52 days

期刊介绍： The journal Microbial Risk Analysis accepts articles dealing with the study of risk analysis applied to microbial hazards. Manuscripts should at least cover any of the components of risk assessment (risk characterization, exposure assessment, etc.), risk management and/or risk communication in any microbiology field (clinical, environmental, food, veterinary, etc.). This journal also accepts article dealing with predictive microbiology, quantitative microbial ecology, mathematical modeling, risk studies applied to microbial ecology, quantitative microbiology for epidemiological studies, statistical methods applied to microbiology, and laws and regulatory policies aimed at lessening the risk of microbial hazards. Work focusing on risk studies of viruses, parasites, microbial toxins, antimicrobial resistant organisms, genetically modified organisms (GMOs), and recombinant DNA products are also acceptable.