Short-term River streamflow modeling using Ensemble-based additive learner approach

Abstract

Accurate streamflow (Q_t) prediction can provide critical information for urban hydrological management strategies such as flood mitigation, long-term water resources management, land use planning and agricultural and irrigation operations. Since the mid-20th century, Artificial Intelligence (AI) models have been used in a wide range of engineering and scientific fields, and their application has increased in the last few years. In this study, the predictive capabilities of the reduced error pruning tree (REPT) model, used both as a standalone model and within five ensemble-approaches, were evaluated to predict streamflow in the Kurkursar basin in Iran. The ensemble-approaches combined the REPT model with the bootstrap aggregation (BA), random committee (RC), random subspace (RS), additive regression (AR) and disjoint aggregating (DA) (i.e. BA-REPT, RC-REPT, RS-REPT, AR-REPT and DA-REPT). The models were developed using 15 years of daily rainfall and streamflow data for the period 23 September 1997 to 22 September 2012. A set of eight different input scenarios was constructed using different combinations of the input variables to find the most effective scenario based on the linear correlation coefficient. A comprehensive suite of graphical (time-variation graph, scatter-plot, violin plot and Taylor diagram) and quantitative metrics (root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), Nash-Sutcliff efficiency (NSE), Percent of BIAS (PBIAS) and the ratio of RMSE to the standard deviation of observation (RSR)) was applied to evaluate the prediction accuracy of the six models developed. The outcomes indicated that all models performed well but the AR-REPT outperformed all the other models by rendering lower errors and higher precision across a number of statistical measures. The use of the BA, RC, RS, AR and DA models enhanced the performance of the standalone REPT model by about 26.82%, 18.91%, 7.69%, 28.99% and 28.05% respectively.