Time Series Analysis of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Sabzevar Northeastern Iran Using Segmented Regression Model

Abstract

Background and aims: The evaluation of time distribution of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Sabzevar County using the joinpoint regression model. Methods: This study was an ecological study using existing data related to the rural districts of Sabzevar county. Data during the period of 2011 to 2017 were obtained from the health deputy of this county. In this study, the segmented regression model was applied to evaluate the time trend of cutaneous leishmaniases CL. Joint point software was used for time series analysis. Results: A total of 1912 (CL) cases occurred in Sabzevar county from 2011 to 2017, with an incidence rate of 93.61 per 100,000. The highest and lowest observed incidence rates were in 2011(25 per 10,000 persons) and 2015 (3.24 per 10,000 persons) respectively. The annuall incidence of CL in the region under study was decreased, and APC was equal to -22.40. Time series analysis using segmented regression by rural districts showed that there was a Change point in the trend of incidence of leishmaniasis in three rural districts (Pain Joveyn and Joghatai in 2014 and Qasabeh-ye Sharqi in 2013). Conclusions: The results of this study can indicate that in recent years, interventional, preventive and therapeutic measures for breaking the chain of cutaneous leishmaniasis transmission in the county of Sabzevar have been desirable.