Multimodel ensemble projection of photovoltaic power potential in China by the 2060s

IF 2.3 4区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Xu Zhao , Xu Yue , Chenguang Tian , Hao Zhou , Bin Wang , Yuwen Chen , Yuan Zhao , Weijie Fu , Yihan Hu
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Abstract

China's demand for solar energy has been growing rapidly to meet energy transformation targets. However, the potential of solar energy is affected by weather conditions and is expected to change under climate warming. Here, the authors project the photovoltaic (PV) power potential over China under low and high emission scenarios by the 2060s, taking advantage of meteorological variables from 24 CMIP6 models and 4 PV models with varied formats. The ensemble mean of these models yields an average PV power of 277.2 KWh m−2 yr−1 during 2004–2014, with a decreasing tendency from the west to east. By 2054–2064, the national average PV power potential is projected to increase by 2.29% under a low emission scenario but decrease by 0.43% under a high emission scenario. The emission control in the former scenario significantly enhances surface solar radiation and promotes PV power in the east. On the contrary, strong warming causes inhibitions to PV power generation under the high emission scenario. Extreme warming events on average decrease the PV power potential by 0.28% under the low emission scenario and 0.44% under the high emission scenario, doubling and tripling the present-day loss, respectively. The projections reveal large benefits of controlling emissions for the future solar energy in China due to both the clean atmosphere and the moderate warming.

20世纪60年代中国光伏发电潜力的多模型综合预测
为了实现能源转型目标,中国对太阳能的需求一直在快速增长。然而,太阳能的潜力受到天气条件的影响,预计在气候变暖的情况下会发生变化。本文利用24个CMIP6模型和4个不同格式的PV模型的气象变量,预测了到2060年代中国低排放和高排放情景下的光伏发电潜力。在2004-2014年期间,这些模式的综合平均值平均光伏发电功率为277.2 KWh m−2 yr−1,从西到东呈下降趋势。预计到2054-2064年,低排放情景下全国平均光伏发电潜力将增长2.29%,高排放情景下将下降0.43%。前一种情况下的排放控制显著增强了地表太阳辐射,促进了东部地区的光伏发电。相反,在高排放情景下,强变暖对光伏发电产生抑制作用。在低排放情景下,极端变暖事件使光伏发电潜力平均减少0.28%,在高排放情景下,平均减少0.44%,分别是目前损失的两倍和三倍。这些预测表明,由于清洁的大气和适度的变暖,控制中国未来太阳能排放的巨大好处。
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来源期刊
Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters
Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES-
CiteScore
4.20
自引率
8.70%
发文量
925
审稿时长
12 weeks
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