A comprehensive multi‐hazard risk assessment model for an urban agglomeration with multiple factors

Abstract

To assist the Department of Emergency Management in understanding the overall risk characteristics and situation of an urban agglomeration for a reasonable risk prevention and control strategy, this study developed a comprehensive multi-hazard risk assessment model for an urban agglomeration with multiple factors. The proposed model includes disaster probability and disaster loss sub-models. The model evaluated four types of disaster risk in urban agglomerations: natural disasters, accidental disasters, public health incidents, and social security incidents. In addition, a variety of factors were integrated into the model, including the socioeconomic foundation of urban agglomerations, the oligopoly effect of core cities, historical disaster losses, the effect of disaster chains, the ability of disaster prevention and mitigation, and intercity coordinated rescue capabilities. Finally, the risk assessment model was applied to the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration. The assessment results were compared to the distribution of the new coronavirus pneumonia epidemic in the target urban agglomeration. The results showed that after analyzing the risk characteristics and evaluating the risk levels, the model not only showed the comprehensive risk levels and distribution of urban agglomerations but also revealed the high-risk areas and the key points of risk prevention and control. More importantly, the results obtained through the model can facilitate the strategic planning of disaster prevention and mitigation for urban agglomerations.