Modeled (1990–2100) variations in active‐layer thickness and ice‐wedge activity near Salluit, Nunavik (Canada)

IF 3 3区 地球科学 Q2 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL
Samuel Gagnon, M. Allard
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引用次数: 1

Abstract

Simulations with a one‐dimensional heat transfer model (TONE) were performed to reproduce the near surface ground temperature regime in the four main types of soil profiles found in Narsajuaq River Valley (Nunavik, Canada) for the period 1990–2100. The permafrost thermal regime was simulated using climate data from a reanalysis (1948–2002), climate stations (1989–1991, 2002–2019) and simulations based on climate warming scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (2019–2100). The model was calibrated based on extensive field measurements made between 1989 and 2019. The results were used to estimate when soil thermal contraction cracking will eventually stop and to forecast the melting of ice wedges due to active‐layer thickening. For the period 1990–2019, all soil profiles experienced cracking every year until 2006, when cracking became intermittent during a warm period before completely stopping in 2009–2010, after which cracking resumed during colder years. Ice‐wedge tops melted from 1992 to 2010 as the active layer thickened, indicating that top‐down ice‐wedge degradation can occur simultaneously with cracking and growth in width. Our predictions show that ice wedges in the valley will completely stop cracking between 2024 and 2096, first in sandy soils and later in soils with thicker organic horizons. The timing will also depend on greenhouse gas concentration trajectories. All ice wedges in the study area will probably experience some degradation of their main body before the end of the century, causing their roots to become relict ice by the end of the 21st century.
模拟(1990-2100)努那维克萨鲁特附近活动层厚度和冰楔活动的变化
使用一维传热模型(TONE)进行模拟,以重现1990–2100年期间在Narsajuaq河谷(加拿大努纳维克)发现的四种主要类型土壤剖面中的近地表地面温度状况。使用再分析(1948–2002)、气候站(1989–1991、2002–2019)的气候数据以及基于气候变暖情景RCP4.5和RCP8.5(2019–2100)的模拟,模拟了永久冻土的热状况。该模型是根据1989年至2019年间进行的大量实地测量进行校准的。该结果用于估计土壤热收缩开裂最终何时停止,并预测活动层增厚导致的冰楔融化。在1990年至2019年期间,所有土壤剖面每年都会发生开裂,直到2006年,在2009年至2010年完全停止之前,在温暖的时期,开裂变得间歇性,之后在寒冷的年份,开裂又恢复了。从1992年到2010年,随着活动层的增厚,冰楔顶部融化,这表明自上而下的冰楔退化可能与宽度的开裂和增长同时发生。我们的预测表明,山谷中的冰楔将在2024年至2096年间完全停止破裂,首先是在沙质土壤中,后来是在有机层较厚的土壤中。时间也将取决于温室气体浓度轨迹。在本世纪末之前,研究区域内的所有冰楔的主体可能都会发生一些退化,导致它们的根部在21世纪末成为残留冰。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
9.70
自引率
8.00%
发文量
43
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: Permafrost and Periglacial Processes is an international journal dedicated to the rapid publication of scientific and technical papers concerned with earth surface cryogenic processes, landforms and sediments present in a variety of (Sub) Arctic, Antarctic and High Mountain environments. It provides an efficient vehicle of communication amongst those with an interest in the cold, non-glacial geosciences. The focus is on (1) original research based on geomorphological, hydrological, sedimentological, geotechnical and engineering aspects of these areas and (2) original research carried out upon relict features where the objective has been to reconstruct the nature of the processes and/or palaeoenvironments which gave rise to these features, as opposed to purely stratigraphical considerations. The journal also publishes short communications, reviews, discussions and book reviews. The high scientific standard, interdisciplinary character and worldwide representation of PPP are maintained by regional editorial support and a rigorous refereeing system.
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