Strategy in an Uncertain Domain: Threat and Response in Cyberspace

Abstract

Over the last decade, "cyber power" has become an increasingly prominent concept and instrument of national strategy. This article explores the nature of contemporary cyber power, focusing on how states should respond to "cyber uncertainty." Cases of cyber operations against Estonia, Georgia, and Ukraine, as well as cyber operations conducted (and suffered) by the United States, highlight the evolving role of cyber operations as an instrument of statecraft. Given the complexity of cyber forensics and the polluted information environment of the global public sphere, the public diplomacy of coordinated attribution statements cannot be expected to cut through conclusively or uniformly. States must therefore organise themselves effectively to produce and implement coherent cyber strategy, improving their relational cyber power. This should focus on cyber security and resilience, but also including effective cyber diplomacy, and assessment of what sovereign offensive capabilities are desirable and feasible.