Trivial Tripwires?: Military Capabilities and Alliance Reassurance

IF 2.2 2区社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

Security Studies Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI:10.1080/09636412.2022.2038662

Brian Blankenship, Erik Lin-Greenberg

引用次数: 7

Abstract

Abstract How can states most effectively reassure their allies? Existing studies assessing signals of commitment focus on the role of resolve in making assurances credible. This sidelines important questions about the role of capability. We argue that reassurance effectiveness is the product of both capability and resolve, and suggest that high resolve cannot offset low capability. We introduce a new typology of reassurance measures based on the interaction of military capability and resolve, and test which types of measures are most reassuring using an original survey fielded on European foreign policy experts and a case study of US and North Atlantic Treaty Organization reassurance initiatives in the Baltics. We find that high-resolve, low-capability signals such as tripwire forces in allied territory are not viewed as any more reassuring than high-capability, low-resolve signals such as forces stationed offshore. Our study casts doubt on the reassurance value of tripwires and contributes to scholarship on interstate signaling.

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琐碎的Tripwires？：军事能力与联盟保障

摘要国家如何才能最有效地安抚盟友？评估承诺信号的现有研究侧重于决心在使保证可信方面的作用。这回避了有关能力作用的重要问题。我们认为，保证有效性是能力和决心的产物，并认为高决心不能抵消低能力。我们引入了一种基于军事能力和决心相互作用的新类型的安抚措施，并通过对欧洲外交政策专家的原始调查和对美国和北大西洋公约组织在波罗的海地区的安抚举措的案例研究，测试了哪种类型的措施最令人放心。我们发现，高分辨率、低能力的信号，如盟军领土上的绊网部队，并不被视为比高能力、低分辨率的信号（如驻扎在海上的部队）更令人放心。我们的研究对绊网的保证价值提出了质疑，并为州际信号研究做出了贡献。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Security Studies INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS-

CiteScore

2.70

自引率

16.70%

发文量

期刊介绍： Security Studies publishes innovative scholarly manuscripts that make a significant contribution – whether theoretical, empirical, or both – to our understanding of international security. Studies that do not emphasize the causes and consequences of war or the sources and conditions of peace fall outside the journal’s domain. Security Studies features articles that develop, test, and debate theories of international security – that is, articles that address an important research question, display innovation in research, contribute in a novel way to a body of knowledge, and (as appropriate) demonstrate theoretical development with state-of-the art use of appropriate methodological tools. While we encourage authors to discuss the policy implications of their work, articles that are primarily policy-oriented do not fit the journal’s mission. The journal publishes articles that challenge the conventional wisdom in the area of international security studies. Security Studies includes a wide range of topics ranging from nuclear proliferation and deterrence, civil-military relations, strategic culture, ethnic conflicts and their resolution, epidemics and national security, democracy and foreign-policy decision making, developments in qualitative and multi-method research, and the future of security studies.