Do Central Bank Communications Influence Survey of Professional Forecasters? An Empirical Investigation

Q2 Business, Management and Accounting

Business Perspectives and Research Pub Date : 2023-02-15 DOI:10.1177/22785337221148859

P. Kapoor, Sujata Kar

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Abstract

The present study contributes to our understanding regarding private-sector inflation expectations and how central bank communications influence them in an emerging economy like India. This study uses the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) regression function to estimate the influence of the determinants on the survey of professional forecasters for a period ranging from Q1 2014–2015 to Q4 2021–2022. Our results demonstrate the significant positive influence of the lagged period inflation forecasted by the professionals and central bank communications in the form of inflation projections on the inflation forecasted by the professionals in the current period. Macroeconomic variables like repo rate, lagged realized inflation, GDP, merchandise exports and imports, and crude oil rates turned out to be non-significant in influencing the inflation forecasted by the professionals, at least in the short run. The literature highlights the importance of anchoring private-sector expectations by the central bank in an economy, and our results provide empirical evidence for the same, along with its implications on policy making.

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央行通信对专业预测师的调查有影响吗？实证研究

本研究有助于我们理解私营部门的通胀预期，以及央行的沟通如何影响印度等新兴经济体的通胀预期。本研究使用自回归分布滞后(ARDL)回归函数来估计决定因素对2014-2015年第一季度至2021-2022年第四季度专业预测者调查的影响。我们的研究结果表明，专业人员预测的滞后期通货膨胀和中央银行以通货膨胀预测形式进行的沟通对专业人员预测的当期通货膨胀有显著的正向影响。宏观经济变量，如回购利率、滞后的已实现通货膨胀、GDP、商品进出口和原油价格对专业人士预测的通货膨胀的影响不显著，至少在短期内是这样。这些文献强调了央行在经济中锚定私营部门预期的重要性，我们的研究结果提供了同样的经验证据，以及它对政策制定的影响。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Business Perspectives and Research Business, Management and Accounting-Business and International Management

CiteScore

5.00

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： Business Perspectives and Research (BPR) aims to publish conceptual, empirical and applied research. The empirical research published in BPR focuses on testing, extending and building management theory. The goal is to expand and enhance the understanding of business and management through empirical investigation and theoretical analysis. BPR is also a platform for insightful and theoretically strong conceptual and review papers which would contribute to the body of knowledge. BPR seeks to advance the understanding of for-profit and not-for-profit organizations through empirical and conceptual work. It also publishes critical review of newly released books under Book Review section. The aim is to popularize and encourage discussion on ideas expressed in newly released books connected to management and allied disciplines. BPR also periodically publishes management cases grounded in theory, and communications in the form of research notes or comments from researchers and practitioners on published papers for critiquing and/or extending thinking on the area under consideration. The overarching aim of Business Perspectives and Research is to encourage original/innovative thinking through a scientific approach.