Integrating macro and micro level crash frequency models considering spatial heterogeneity and random effects

IF 12.5 1区 工程技术 Q1 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH
Shahrior Pervaz , Tanmoy Bhowmik , Naveen Eluru
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引用次数: 3

Abstract

Safety literature has traditionally developed independent model systems for macroscopic and microscopic level analysis. The current research effort contributes to the literature on crash frequency by building a bridge between these two divergent streams of crash frequency research. The study proposes an integrated micro–macro level model for crash frequency estimation. Specifically, the study develops an integrated model system that allows for the influence of independent variables at the microscopic level to be incorporated within the macroscopic propensity estimation. The empirical analysis is based on the data drawn from 300 traffic analysis zones, 1818 roadway segments, and 4184 intersections from the City of Orlando, Florida for the years 2018 and 2019. The study considers a host of exogenous variables including roadway and traffic factors, land-use, built environment, and sociodemographic characteristics for the model estimation. The proposed model system can also accommodate for hierarchical correlations such as correlation between all segments or intersections in a zone. The study findings highlight the presence of common spatial unobserved factors influencing crash frequency across segment level and intersection level as well as presence of significant parameter variability across both micro and macro level in the crash frequency. The empirical analysis is further augmented by employing several goodness of fit and predictive measures. The results clearly demonstrate the improved performance offered by the proposed integrated micro–macro model relative to the non-integrated macro model. The overall model fit measures and interpretations encourage the application of the proposed model for crash frequency analysis.

综合考虑空间异质性和随机效应的宏观和微观碰撞频率模型
安全文献传统上建立了独立的模型系统进行宏观和微观层面的分析。目前的研究工作通过在这两种不同的碰撞频率研究流之间建立桥梁来促进碰撞频率的文献。研究提出了一种综合的微观-宏观层面碰撞频率估计模型。具体而言,该研究开发了一个集成模型系统,该系统允许将微观层面的自变量的影响纳入宏观倾向估计中。该实证分析基于2018年和2019年佛罗里达州奥兰多市300个交通分析区、1818个路段和4184个十字路口的数据。该研究考虑了许多外生变量,包括道路和交通因素、土地利用、建筑环境和社会人口特征的模型估计。所提出的模型系统还可以适应层次相关性,例如区域中所有路段或交叉口之间的相关性。研究结果表明,在路段水平和交叉口水平上,影响碰撞频率的共同空间未观测因素存在,碰撞频率在微观和宏观水平上都存在显著的参数变异性。通过采用几个拟合优度和预测措施,进一步增强了实证分析。结果清楚地表明,所提出的综合微观宏观模型相对于非综合宏观模型具有更好的性能。整体模型拟合措施和解释鼓励提出的模型用于碰撞频率分析的应用。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
22.10
自引率
34.10%
发文量
35
审稿时长
24 days
期刊介绍: Analytic Methods in Accident Research is a journal that publishes articles related to the development and application of advanced statistical and econometric methods in studying vehicle crashes and other accidents. The journal aims to demonstrate how these innovative approaches can provide new insights into the factors influencing the occurrence and severity of accidents, thereby offering guidance for implementing appropriate preventive measures. While the journal primarily focuses on the analytic approach, it also accepts articles covering various aspects of transportation safety (such as road, pedestrian, air, rail, and water safety), construction safety, and other areas where human behavior, machine failures, or system failures lead to property damage or bodily harm.
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