Estimating the Relationship between Time-varying Covariates and Trajectories: The Sequence Analysis Multistate Model Procedure

IF 2.4 2区社会学 Q1 SOCIOLOGY

Sociological Methodology Pub Date : 2018-01-08 DOI:10.1177/0081175017747122

M. Studer, E. Struffolino, A. Fasang

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引用次数: 27

Abstract

The relationship between processes and time-varying covariates is of central theoretical interest in addressing many social science research questions. On the one hand, event history analysis (EHA) has been the chosen method to study these kinds of relationships when the outcomes can be meaningfully specified as simple instantaneous events or transitions. On the other hand, sequence analysis (SA) has made increasing inroads into the social sciences to analyze trajectories as holistic “process outcomes.” We propose an original combination of these two approaches called the sequence analysis multistate model (SAMM) procedure. The SAMM procedure allows the study of the relationship between time-varying covariates and trajectories of categorical states specified as process outcomes that unfold over time. The SAMM is a stepwise procedure: (1) SA-related methods are used to identify ideal-typical patterns of changes within trajectories obtained by considering the sequence of states over a predefined time span; (2) multistate event history models are estimated to study the probability of transitioning from a specific state to such ideal-typical patterns. The added value of the SAMM procedure is illustrated through an example from life-course sociology on how (1) time-varying family status is associated with women’s employment trajectories in East and West Germany and (2) how German reunification affected these trajectories in the two subsocieties.

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估计时变协变量和轨迹之间的关系：序列分析多状态模型过程

过程和时变协变量之间的关系是解决许多社会科学研究问题的核心理论兴趣。一方面，当结果可以被有意义地指定为简单的瞬时事件或过渡时，事件历史分析(EHA)一直是研究这类关系的首选方法。另一方面，序列分析(SA)已经越来越多地进入社会科学，将轨迹作为整体的“过程结果”进行分析。我们提出了这两种方法的原始组合，称为序列分析多状态模型(SAMM)过程。SAMM程序允许研究时变协变量与随时间展开的过程结果指定的分类状态轨迹之间的关系。SAMM是一个循序渐进的过程:(1)使用与sa相关的方法来识别通过考虑预定义时间范围内的状态序列而获得的轨迹内的理想典型变化模式;(2)估计多状态事件历史模型，研究从特定状态过渡到理想-典型模式的概率。SAMM程序的附加价值通过一个来自生命历程社会学的例子来说明:(1)随时间变化的家庭地位如何与东德和西德妇女的就业轨迹相关联，以及(2)德国统一如何影响两个亚社会的这些轨迹。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Sociological Methodology SOCIOLOGY-

CiteScore

4.50

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： Sociological Methodology is a compendium of new and sometimes controversial advances in social science methodology. Contributions come from diverse areas and have something useful -- and often surprising -- to say about a wide range of topics ranging from legal and ethical issues surrounding data collection to the methodology of theory construction. In short, Sociological Methodology holds something of value -- and an interesting mix of lively controversy, too -- for nearly everyone who participates in the enterprise of sociological research.