Whose policy uncertainty affects commodity trade between Australia and the United States?

IF 1.2 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS
Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee, Ridha Nouira, Sami Saafi
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Recent studies are assessing the impact of news-based policy uncertainty measure on trade flows between countries. In this paper we add to this new literature by investigating the symmetric and asymmetric effects of Australian policy uncertainty index and the U.S. index on trade flows of 63 two-digit industries that trade between the two countries. When we estimated a symmetric and linear model for each industry, we found short-run effects of both uncertainty measures on 30% of the industries' trade flows. However, this number increased to 70% when an asymmetric and nonlinear model was estimated. The long-run effects of both policy uncertainty followed similar pattern. Less than 10% of trade was affected by the estimates of the linear models. However, estimates of the nonlinear models predicted that 41.20% (26.53%) of the U.S. exports to Australia was affected by the U.S. uncertainty (Australian uncertainty). As for the Australian exports to the United States, 6.72% (5.5%) of its exports were affected by the changes in the U.S. policy uncertainty (Australian uncertainty). In almost all industries, increased uncertainty was found to hurt the trade and decreased uncertainty was found to boost it at different rate or asymmetrically. In sum, the U.S. and Australian policy uncertainty measure affects U.S. exports to Australia much more than they affect Australian exports to the United States.

谁的政策不确定性影响了澳大利亚和美国之间的商品贸易?
最近的研究正在评估基于新闻的政策不确定性措施对国家间贸易流动的影响。在本文中,我们通过研究澳大利亚政策不确定性指数和美国指数对两国之间贸易的63个两位数行业的贸易流量的对称和不对称影响,为这一新的文献添加了新的内容。当我们估计每个行业的对称和线性模型时,我们发现这两种不确定性措施对30%的行业贸易流量产生了短期影响。然而,当估计非对称和非线性模型时,这一数字增加到70%。两种政策不确定性的长期影响都遵循类似的模式。只有不到10%的贸易受到线性模型估计的影响。然而,根据非线性模型的估计,41.20%(26.53%)的美国对澳大利亚出口受到美国不确定性(Australian uncertainty)的影响。在澳大利亚对美出口中,6.72%(5.5%)的出口受到了美国政策不确定性(Australian uncertainty)变化的影响。在几乎所有的行业中,不确定性的增加被发现会损害贸易,而不确定性的减少被发现会以不同的速度或不对称地促进贸易。总而言之,美国和澳大利亚的政策不确定性措施对美国对澳大利亚出口的影响远大于对澳大利亚对美国出口的影响。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
3.20
自引率
5.30%
发文量
36
期刊介绍: Australian Economic Papers publishes innovative and thought provoking contributions that extend the frontiers of the subject, written by leading international economists in theoretical, empirical and policy economics. Australian Economic Papers is a forum for debate between theorists, econometricians and policy analysts and covers an exceptionally wide range of topics on all the major fields of economics as well as: theoretical and empirical industrial organisation, theoretical and empirical labour economics and, macro and micro policy analysis.
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