{"title":"Exploring the temporal variability of the factors affecting driver injury severity by body region employing a hybrid econometric approach","authors":"Ahmed Kabli , Tanmoy Bhowmik , Naveen Eluru","doi":"10.1016/j.amar.2022.100246","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The current study contributes to safety literature by incorporating the influence of temporal factors (observed and unobserved) within a multivariate model system for medical professional generated body region specific injury severity score. For this purpose, we adopt a hybrid econometric modeling approach that accommodates for the unobserved factors using two mechanisms. First, we parameterize unobserved temporal factor variation through the customization of the variance by time cohort (heteroscedasticity). Second, the common unobserved factors affecting severity across various body regions is accommodated through traditional random parameter consideration process. The proposed model system is estimated using data drawn from the National Automotive Sampling System-Crashworthiness Data System (NASS-CDS) database for the time cohorts 2003, 2006, 2009, 2012, and 2015. For the current analysis, we consider 6-point Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) for eight body regions (head, face, neck, abdomen, thorax, spine, lower extremity, and upper extremity). The proposed model system offers interesting insights on body region severity evolution over time. The model estimation is augmented with post-estimation exercises including hold-out sample validation analysis, illustrative policy analysis and extensive elasticity effect computation.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47520,"journal":{"name":"Analytic Methods in Accident Research","volume":"37 ","pages":"Article 100246"},"PeriodicalIF":12.5000,"publicationDate":"2023-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"2","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Analytic Methods in Accident Research","FirstCategoryId":"5","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2213665722000355","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Abstract
The current study contributes to safety literature by incorporating the influence of temporal factors (observed and unobserved) within a multivariate model system for medical professional generated body region specific injury severity score. For this purpose, we adopt a hybrid econometric modeling approach that accommodates for the unobserved factors using two mechanisms. First, we parameterize unobserved temporal factor variation through the customization of the variance by time cohort (heteroscedasticity). Second, the common unobserved factors affecting severity across various body regions is accommodated through traditional random parameter consideration process. The proposed model system is estimated using data drawn from the National Automotive Sampling System-Crashworthiness Data System (NASS-CDS) database for the time cohorts 2003, 2006, 2009, 2012, and 2015. For the current analysis, we consider 6-point Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) for eight body regions (head, face, neck, abdomen, thorax, spine, lower extremity, and upper extremity). The proposed model system offers interesting insights on body region severity evolution over time. The model estimation is augmented with post-estimation exercises including hold-out sample validation analysis, illustrative policy analysis and extensive elasticity effect computation.
期刊介绍:
Analytic Methods in Accident Research is a journal that publishes articles related to the development and application of advanced statistical and econometric methods in studying vehicle crashes and other accidents. The journal aims to demonstrate how these innovative approaches can provide new insights into the factors influencing the occurrence and severity of accidents, thereby offering guidance for implementing appropriate preventive measures. While the journal primarily focuses on the analytic approach, it also accepts articles covering various aspects of transportation safety (such as road, pedestrian, air, rail, and water safety), construction safety, and other areas where human behavior, machine failures, or system failures lead to property damage or bodily harm.