Enforcing pragmatic future-mindedness cures the innovator's bias

Abstract

The innovator's bias is defined as the tendency for innovators to focus mainly on the positive potential impact of their inventions and to neglect, ignore, or downplay any potential negative impact. Such bias may help sustain the motivation needed for business success but may create problems by failing to acknowledge and prepare for problematic outcomes. We report three studies (total n = 1608) designed to demonstrate this bias—and to show how to overcome it (while ideally preserving the innovators' enthusiastic affection for their product). Three studies used hypothetical innovations, all with potential downsides. Feelings of ownership were manipulated by having some participants role-play being marketing manager, including naming the product, devising advertising slogans, and identifying target demographics for potential purchasers. Owners then rated their product, while nonowner controls rated a different product. Study 1 (n = 495) demonstrated the innovator's bias by showing that owners rated the likely consequences of their product more favorably than nonowners did. Owners also displayed more enthusiastic zeal for their product. Study 2 (n = 553) tested interventions aimed at reducing the bias while preserving the zeal. Of six interventions, the most successful was having owners imagine the worst-case scenario involving the most negative outcome that the invention could cause. Study 3 (n = 560) was a preregistered replication of the main findings from Study 2 (osf.io/ew9cq).