Estimation of Covid-19 Prevalence Dynamics from Pooled Data

IF 16.4 1区化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Accounts of Chemical Research Pub Date : 2023-05-12 DOI:10.1093/jssam/smad011

Braden Scherting, A. Peel, R. Plowright, A. Hoegh

引用次数: 2

Abstract

Estimating the prevalence of a disease, such as COVID-19, is necessary for evaluating and mitigating risks of its transmission. Estimates that consider how prevalence changes with time provide more information about these risks but are difficult to obtain due to the necessary survey intensity and commensurate testing costs. Motivated by a dataset on COVID-19, from the University of Notre Dame, we propose pooling and jointly testing multiple samples to reduce testing costs. A nonparametric, hierarchical Bayesian model is used to infer population prevalence from the pooled test results without needing to retest individuals from pools that test positive. This approach is shown to reduce uncertainty compared to individual testing at the same budget and to produce similar estimates compared to individual testing at a much higher budget through simulation studies and an analysis of COVID-19 infections at Notre Dame.

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从汇总数据估计新冠肺炎患病率动态

估计新冠肺炎等疾病的流行率对于评估和减轻其传播风险是必要的。考虑流行率如何随时间变化的估计提供了更多关于这些风险的信息，但由于必要的调查强度和相应的检测成本，很难获得。受圣母大学新冠肺炎数据集的启发，我们建议将多个样本合并并联合检测，以降低检测成本。使用非参数分层贝叶斯模型从汇集的测试结果中推断人群患病率，而无需重新测试来自检测呈阳性的汇集中的个体。通过模拟研究和对圣母院新冠肺炎感染的分析，与相同预算下的单独检测相比，这种方法可以减少不确定性，并与更高预算下的个人检测相比产生类似的估计。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合

CiteScore

31.40

自引率

1.10%

发文量

312

审稿时长

2 months

期刊介绍： Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.