Employment projections in a pandemic environment

Abstract

This article examines the impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 2019–29 employment projections through two alternate scenarios: a moderate impact scenario and a strong impact scenario. The purpose of these projections is to estimate potential long-term structural changes in the U.S. labor market that are caused by changes in consumer and firm behavior as a result of the pandemic. Given the pandemic’s unprecedented impact on public health and social behavior, and in light of the still-evolving health crisis, the objective of this effort is to identify industries and occupations whose employment trajectories are subject to higher levels of uncertainty. The intent is not to produce precise estimates of employment change over the projections period.