What are the main factors driving behind the MENA countries current account deficit? A panel logit approach analysis

Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Revista de Metodos Cuantitativos para la Economia y la Empresa Pub Date : 2022-02-10 DOI:10.46661/revmetodoscuanteconempresa.4473

M. Guellil, Salah Eddine Sari Hassoun, Jorge Chica‐Olmo, Mehmet Sarac

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Abstract

The sustained current account deﬁcit in any country has an important implication for policy. If it continues, then it suggests that the regime ought to have no motivation to avoid or to diminish its international debt. In this paper, we test empirically the relationship among current account deficit and different macroeconomic variables by using panel Logit model. Therefore, we focus on the MENA countries during the years of 1980-2017. We built an econometric model to analyse the contribution of the real GDP, unemployment rate (UR), consumer price index (CPI), export growth rate (EGR), import growth rate (IGR), public expenditures (PE), and foreign trade rate (FTR) on current account deficit (CAD). We established that only the following exogenous variables: GDP, UR, PE and FTR have a positive and significant effect on the current account deficit. This outcome may support governments to identify the best time for investment and business strategies by observing the evolution of the performance of higher temporal hierarchy industries.

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中东和北非地区国家经常账户赤字背后的主要因素是什么？面板逻辑方法分析

任何国家持续的经常账户赤字对政策都有重要影响。如果这种情况继续下去，那么这表明该政权不应该有任何动机来避免或减少其国际债务。本文运用面板Logit模型实证检验了经常项目赤字与不同宏观经济变量之间的关系。因此，我们将重点放在1980-2017年间的中东和北非国家。我们建立了一个经济计量模型来分析实际GDP、失业率、消费价格指数、出口增长率、进口增长率、公共支出和外贸率对经常项目赤字的贡献。我们确定只有以下外生变量：GDP、UR、PE和FTR对经常账户赤字有积极而显著的影响。这一结果可能支持政府通过观察更高时间层次行业的绩效演变来确定投资和商业战略的最佳时机。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Revista de Metodos Cuantitativos para la Economia y la Empresa Economics, Econometrics and Finance-Economics, Econometrics and Finance (all)

CiteScore

0.80

自引率

0.00%

发文量

审稿时长

15 weeks

期刊介绍： The Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration wants to be a useful mean of communication for all those who research on mathematical, statistical or econometrical techniques and their possible applications in the world of business and economy. It is edited by a group of professors in the Department of Economics, Quantitative Methods and Economic History Department at Pablo de Olavide University in Seville ( Spain ).