{"title":"Sequential selections with minimization of failure","authors":"Krzysztof J. Szajowski","doi":"10.1016/j.jmp.2022.102723","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The decision-maker (<strong>DM</strong>) sequentially evaluates up to <span><math><mi>N</mi></math></span> of different, rankable options. <strong>DM</strong> must select exactly the best one at the moment of its appearance. In the process of searching, <strong>DM</strong> finds out with each applicant whether she is the best applicant among those assessed so far (we call him a candidate). <strong>DM</strong> cannot return to rejected candidates. We discuss the psychological aspects of this selection problem, known in the literature as the secretary problem. The analysis is based on knowledge of the chances, and a subjective assessment of acceptance of the positive and negative effects <strong>DM</strong><span>’s decision. The acceptance assessment of success and failure is presented on subjective scales. We set an optimal policy that recommends analyzing applicants up to a certain point in time (a threshold time) without selecting any of them and then selecting the next encountered candidate. The determined optimal threshold depends on the level of acceptance of the positive and negative effects of the choice. This issue is discussed in the article.</span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":50140,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Mathematical Psychology","volume":"111 ","pages":"Article 102723"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2000,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"1","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Mathematical Psychology","FirstCategoryId":"102","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S002224962200061X","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Abstract
The decision-maker (DM) sequentially evaluates up to of different, rankable options. DM must select exactly the best one at the moment of its appearance. In the process of searching, DM finds out with each applicant whether she is the best applicant among those assessed so far (we call him a candidate). DM cannot return to rejected candidates. We discuss the psychological aspects of this selection problem, known in the literature as the secretary problem. The analysis is based on knowledge of the chances, and a subjective assessment of acceptance of the positive and negative effects DM’s decision. The acceptance assessment of success and failure is presented on subjective scales. We set an optimal policy that recommends analyzing applicants up to a certain point in time (a threshold time) without selecting any of them and then selecting the next encountered candidate. The determined optimal threshold depends on the level of acceptance of the positive and negative effects of the choice. This issue is discussed in the article.
期刊介绍:
The Journal of Mathematical Psychology includes articles, monographs and reviews, notes and commentaries, and book reviews in all areas of mathematical psychology. Empirical and theoretical contributions are equally welcome.
Areas of special interest include, but are not limited to, fundamental measurement and psychological process models, such as those based upon neural network or information processing concepts. A partial listing of substantive areas covered include sensation and perception, psychophysics, learning and memory, problem solving, judgment and decision-making, and motivation.
The Journal of Mathematical Psychology is affiliated with the Society for Mathematical Psychology.
Research Areas include:
• Models for sensation and perception, learning, memory and thinking
• Fundamental measurement and scaling
• Decision making
• Neural modeling and networks
• Psychophysics and signal detection
• Neuropsychological theories
• Psycholinguistics
• Motivational dynamics
• Animal behavior
• Psychometric theory