Puerto Rico exodus: Long-Term Economic Headwinds Prove Stronger than Hurricane Maria.

Abstract

damages, demolishing the electric grid, and severely affecting essential daily services. Recovery from the disasters continued as of the second half of 2019. Amidst the chaos, stakeholders expected impact estimates to be available for recovery planning. Unfortunately, high-quality data sources were scarce, but have recently become available. This paper makes use of longitudinal demographic and economic data spanning Hurricane Maria to give a long-term view of population change in Puerto Rico. First, we show population and employment trends in relation to hurricanes and significant economic events to show that population change is more responsive to employment shocks than hurricane events. Second, we focus on pre- and post-Hurricane Maria air passenger travel data to estimate net migration between 2010 and 2018. The data reveal a sharp spike in outmigration following the hurricanes as well as return immigration in the first half of 2018. In short, the evidence presented is consistent with the view that the struggling economy is the main cause of net out-migration from Puerto Rico, while out-migration in response to the hurricane-related destruction is mostly temporary. Consequently, plans for Puerto Rico's recovery should focus on stimulating the economy.