The East Asian Summer Monsoon Response to Global Warming in a High Resolution Coupled Model: Mean and Extremes

Abstract

Current climate models still have considerable biases in the simulation of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), which in turn reduces their reliability of monsoon projections under global warming. We hypothesize that a higher-resolution coupled climate model with atmospheric and oceanic components at horizontal resolutions of 0.25° and 0.1°, respectively, will better capture regional details and extremes of the EASM. Present-day (PD), 2 × CO₂ and 4 × CO₂ simulations are conducted with the Community Earth System Model (CESM1.2.2) to evaluate PD simulation performance and quantify future changes. Indeed, our PD simulation well reproduces the climatological seasonal mean and intra-seasonal northward advancement of the monsoon rainband, as well as climate extremes. Compared with the PD simulation, the perturbed CO₂ experiments show an intensified EASM response to CO₂-induced warming. We find that the precipitation increases of the Meiyu-Baiu-Changma band are caused by comparable contributions from the dynamical and thermodynamical components in 2 × CO₂, while they are more driven by the thermodynamical component in 4 × CO₂ due to stronger upper atmospheric stability. The regional changes in the probability distribution of the temperature show that extreme temperatures warm faster than the most often temperatures, increasing the skewness. Fitting extreme precipitation values with a generalized Pareto distribution model reveals that they increase significantly in 4 × CO₂. Changes of temperature extremes scale with the CO₂ concentrations over the monsoon domain but not for precipitation extreme changes. The 99^th percentile of precipitation over the monsoon region increases at a super Clausius-Clapeyron rate, ~ 8% K^–1, which is mainly caused by increased moisture transport through anomalous southerly winds.