The Impact of Public Holidays on Insurgent Attacks: The Case of Thailand.

IF 2.3 2区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
Terrorism and Political Violence Pub Date : 2023-06-30 eCollection Date: 2024-01-01 DOI:10.1080/09546553.2023.2222810
Chris Chinda, Cigdem Unal, Zoe Marchment, Paul Gill
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Abstract

This paper analyzes Malay-Muslim insurgents' attacks in the three southern provinces of Thailand between the years of 2010-2021 and identifies the role of public holidays on the level of violence. The existing literature suggests terrorists consider holidays during attack planning. However, there is a lack of agreement on the effect direction. Some studies have found that holidays are a force for peace while others have found they can act as trigger for more violence. Applying environmental criminology to the timing of terrorist attacks, we argue that the type of the holiday matters. Therefore, we analyze public (secular), Islamic, and Buddhist holidays separately. We show that Islamic holidays witness increased violence while Buddhist and public holidays see reductions. We discuss that Islamic holidays increase the Malay-Muslim insurgents' motivation to attack by assigning to those dates a higher symbolic value. On the other hand, on Buddhist and public holidays, insurgents may hesitate to attack to avoid the adverse effects of losing public support and triggering a backlash. The results demonstrate the necessity to analyze the temporal dynamics of terrorist attacks.

公共假日对叛乱袭击的影响:以泰国为例
本文分析了 2010-2021 年间马来穆斯林叛乱分子在泰国南部三府发动的袭击,并指出了公共节假日对暴力程度的影响。现有文献表明,恐怖分子在策划袭击时会考虑节假日。然而,在影响方向上却缺乏一致意见。一些研究发现,节假日是促进和平的力量,而另一些研究则发现,节假日可能成为引发更多暴力的导火索。我们将环境犯罪学应用到恐怖袭击的时机上,认为节日的类型很重要。因此,我们分别分析了公共(世俗)、伊斯兰和佛教节日。我们发现,伊斯兰教节假日的暴力事件会增加,而佛教节假日和公共节假日的暴力事件会减少。我们讨论了伊斯兰教节假日通过赋予这些日期更高的象征意义来提高马来穆斯林叛乱分子的攻击动机。另一方面,在佛教节日和公共节日,叛乱分子可能会犹豫是否发动袭击,以避免失去公众支持和引发反弹的不利影响。研究结果表明,有必要对恐怖袭击的时间动态进行分析。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
5.60
自引率
8.30%
发文量
87
期刊介绍: Terrorism and Political Violence advances scholarship on a broad range of issues associated with terrorism and political violence, including subjects such as: the political meaning of terrorist activity, violence by rebels and by states, the links between political violence and organized crime, protest, rebellion, revolution, the influence of social networks, and the impact on human rights. The journal draws upon many disciplines and theoretical perspectives as well as comparative approaches to provide some of the most groundbreaking work in a field that has hitherto lacked rigour. Terrorism and Political Violence features symposia and edited volumes to cover an important topic in depth. Subjects have included: terrorism and public policy; religion and violence; political parties and terrorism; technology and terrorism; and right-wing terrorism. The journal is essential reading for all academics, decision-makers, and security specialists concerned with understanding political violence.
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