Time to build a new practice of foresight for national economies? Ireland, and uncertain futures in forecasts and scenarios

IF 2.3 Q3 REGIONAL & URBAN PLANNING
Foresight Pub Date : 2023-06-05 DOI:10.1108/fs-10-2021-0191
Tadhg O’Mahony, J. Luukkanen, J. Vehmas, J. Kaivo‐oja
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Purpose The literature on economic forecasting, is showing an increase in criticism, of the inaccuracy of forecasts, with major implications for economic, and fiscal policymaking. Forecasts are subject to the systemic uncertainty of human systems, considerable event-driven uncertainty, and show biases towards optimistic growth paths. The purpose of this study is to consider approaches to improve economic foresight. Design/methodology/approach This study describes the practice of economic foresight as evolving in two separate, non-overlapping branches, short-term economic forecasting, and long-term scenario analysis of development, the latter found in studies of climate change and sustainability. The unique case of Ireland is considered, a country that has experienced both steep growth and deep troughs, with uncertainty that has confounded forecasting. The challenges facing forecasts are discussed, with brief review of the drivers of growth, and of long-term economic scenarios in the global literature. Findings Economic forecasting seeks to manage uncertainty by improving the accuracy of quantitative point forecasts, and related models. Yet, systematic forecast failures remain, and the economy defies prediction, even in the near-term. In contrast, long-term scenario analysis eschews forecasts in favour of a set of plausible or possible alternative scenarios. Using alternative scenarios is a response to the irreducible uncertainty of complex systems, with sophisticated approaches employed to integrate qualitative and quantitative insights. Research limitations/implications To support economic and fiscal policymaking, it is necessary support advancement in approaches to economic foresight, to improve handling of uncertainty and related risk. Practical implications While European Union Regulation (EC) 1466/97 mandates pursuit of improved accuracy, in short-term economic forecasts, there is now a case for implementing advanced foresight approaches, for improved analysis, and more robust decision-making. Social implications Building economic resilience and adaptability, as part of a sustainable future, requires both long-term strategic planning, and short-term policy. A 21st century policymaking process can be better supported by analysis of alternative scenarios. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the article is original in considering the application of scenario foresight approaches, in economic forecasting. The study has value in improving the baseline forecast methods, that are fundamental to contemporary economics, and in bringing the field of economics into the heart of foresight.
是时候为国民经济建立一种新的预见实践了?爱尔兰,以及预测和情景中不确定的未来
目的关于经济预测的文献显示,对预测不准确的批评越来越多,对经济和财政政策制定有重大影响。预测受制于人类系统的系统性不确定性、相当大的事件驱动的不确定性,并显示出对乐观增长路径的偏见。本研究的目的是考虑提高经济前瞻性的方法。设计/方法论/方法本研究将经济展望的实践描述为两个独立的、不重叠的分支,即短期经济预测和长期发展情景分析,后者在气候变化和可持续性研究中发现。考虑到爱尔兰的独特情况,该国经历了急剧增长和低谷,不确定性使预测变得混乱。讨论了预测面临的挑战,并简要回顾了全球文献中的增长驱动因素和长期经济情景。FindingsEconomic预测旨在通过提高定量点预测和相关模型的准确性来管理不确定性。然而,系统性的预测失误仍然存在,即使在短期内,经济也难以预测。相比之下,长期情景分析避开了预测,而倾向于一组看似合理或可能的替代情景。使用替代场景是对复杂系统不可减少的不确定性的回应,采用复杂的方法来整合定性和定量见解。研究局限性/含义为了支持经济和财政政策制定,有必要支持经济前瞻方法的进步,以改进对不确定性和相关风险的处理。实际含义虽然欧盟第1466/97号法规要求在短期经济预测中追求更高的准确性,但现在有理由实施先进的前瞻性方法,改进分析和更稳健的决策。社会含义建立经济韧性和适应性,作为可持续未来的一部分,既需要长期战略规划,也需要短期政策。对替代方案的分析可以更好地支持21世纪的决策过程。独创性/价值据作者所知,这篇文章在考虑情景预见方法在经济预测中的应用方面具有独创性。这项研究有助于改进对当代经济学至关重要的基线预测方法,并将经济学领域纳入前瞻性的核心。
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来源期刊
Foresight
Foresight REGIONAL & URBAN PLANNING-
CiteScore
5.10
自引率
5.00%
发文量
45
期刊介绍: ■Social, political and economic science ■Sustainable development ■Horizon scanning ■Scientific and Technological Change and its implications for society and policy ■Management of Uncertainty, Complexity and Risk ■Foresight methodology, tools and techniques
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