Inflation Expectations in Australia

Abstract

Inflation expectations are typically considered a pivotal and causal driver of inflation dynamics over which central banks have a strong influence. Given this influence, it is important for central banks to understand how expectations are formed and how their operations influence these expectations. We describe the various ways inflation expectations are measured and used by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), and then review the evidence on how Australians form their expectations. In contrast to what is assumed in standard macroeconomic models, expectations are generally not formed rationally or with full information. We close by highlighting what these findings imply for the conduct of monetary policy.