Extreme Events Analysis Using LH-Moments Method and Quantile Function Family

IF 3.1 Q2 WATER RESOURCES

Hydrology Pub Date : 2023-07-30 DOI:10.3390/hydrology10080159

C. Anghel, S. Stanca, Cornel Ilinca

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

A direct way to estimate the likelihood and magnitude of extreme events is frequency analysis. This analysis is based on historical data and assumptions of stationarity, and is carried out with the help of probability distributions and different methods of estimating their parameters. Thus, this article presents all the relations necessary to estimate the parameters with the LH-moments method for the family of distributions defined only by the quantile function, namely, the Wakeby distribution of 4 and 5 parameters, the Lambda distribution of 4 and 5 parameters, and the Davis distribution. The LH-moments method is a method commonly used in flood frequency analysis, and it uses the annual series of maximum flows. The frequency characteristics of the two analyzed methods, which are both involved in expressing the distributions used in the first two linear moments, as well as in determining the confidence interval, are presented. The performances of the analyzed distributions and the two presented methods are verified in the following maximum flows, with the Bahna river used as a case study. The results are presented in comparison with the L-moments method. Following the results obtained, the Wakeby and Lambda distributions have the best performances, and the LH-skewness and LH-kurtosis statistical indicators best model the indicators’ values of the sample (0.5769, 0.3781, 0.548 and 0.3451). Similar to the L-moments method, this represents the main selection criterion of the best fit distribution.

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用LH矩法和分位数函数族进行极端事件分析

估计极端事件的可能性和规模的一种直接方法是频率分析。该分析基于历史数据和平稳性假设，并借助概率分布和估计其参数的不同方法进行。因此，本文给出了仅由分位数函数定义的分布族的LH矩法估计参数所需的所有关系，即4和5个参数的Wakeby分布、4和5参数的Lambda分布和Davis分布。LH矩法是洪水频率分析中常用的一种方法，它使用最大流量的年序列。介绍了两种分析方法的频率特性，这两种方法都涉及表示前两个线性矩中使用的分布，以及确定置信区间。以Bahna河为例，在以下最大流量中验证了所分析的分布和所提出的两种方法的性能。文中给出了与L矩法相比较的结果。根据所得结果，Wakeby和Lambda分布具有最佳性能，LH偏度和LH峰度统计指标最好地模拟了样本的指标值（0.5769、0.3781、0.548和0.3451）。与L矩法类似，这是最佳拟合分布的主要选择标准。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Hydrology Earth and Planetary Sciences-Earth-Surface Processes

CiteScore

4.90

自引率

21.90%

发文量

192

审稿时长

6 weeks

期刊介绍： Journal of Hydrology publishes original research papers and comprehensive reviews in all the subfields of the hydrological sciences, including water based management and policy issues that impact on economics and society. These comprise, but are not limited to the physical, chemical, biogeochemical, stochastic and systems aspects of surface and groundwater hydrology, hydrometeorology, hydrogeology and hydrogeophysics. Relevant topics incorporating the insights and methodologies of disciplines such as climatology, water resource systems, ecohydrology, geomorphology, soil science, instrumentation and remote sensing, data and information sciences, civil and environmental engineering are within scope. Social science perspectives on hydrological problems such as resource and ecological economics, sociology, psychology and behavioural science, management and policy analysis are also invited. Multi-and interdisciplinary analyses of hydrological problems are within scope. The science published in the Journal of Hydrology is relevant to catchment scales rather than exclusively to a local scale or site. Studies focused on urban hydrological issues are included.