Post-Pandemic Onset Public School Enrollment and Mobility: Evidence From Virginia

Abstract

Public school enrollment dramatically decreased during the pandemic, but the patterns of decline and student movement across schools are not yet well understood. Using statewide student-level data from Virginia, we find pre-K–12 enrollment dropped by 4% between fall 2019 and the first post-pandemic fall of 2020. The changes were the largest in pre-kindergarten and kindergarten and explained mostly by decreases in new enrollees, though exits also increased. K–12 enrollment declines were the largest among White and economically-advantaged students (but largest for Black and economically-disadvantaged pre-kindergartners). We also observe a decline in school transfers (both within and between districts), concentrated among Black and economically-disadvantaged students and students with disabilities. Findings have implications for equity, school funding, and student well-being.