Muhammad Umair M Mian, Curtis E Kennedy, Jorge A Coss-Bu, Ramsha Javaid, Buria Naeem, Fong Wilson Lam, Thomas Fogarty, Ayse A Arikan, Trung C Nguyen, Dalia Bashir, Manpreet Virk, Sanjiv Harpavat, Nhu Thao Nguyen Galvan, Abbas A Rana, John A Goss, Daniel H Leung, Moreshwar S Desai
{"title":"Estimating risk of prolonged mechanical ventilation after liver transplantation in children: PROVE-ALT score.","authors":"Muhammad Umair M Mian, Curtis E Kennedy, Jorge A Coss-Bu, Ramsha Javaid, Buria Naeem, Fong Wilson Lam, Thomas Fogarty, Ayse A Arikan, Trung C Nguyen, Dalia Bashir, Manpreet Virk, Sanjiv Harpavat, Nhu Thao Nguyen Galvan, Abbas A Rana, John A Goss, Daniel H Leung, Moreshwar S Desai","doi":"10.1111/petr.14623","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Children at high risk for prolonged mechanical ventilation (PMV) after liver transplantation (LT) need to be identified early to optimize pulmonary support, allocate resources, and improve surgical outcomes. We aimed to develop and validate a metric that can estimate risk for Prolonged Ventilation After LT (PROVE-ALT).</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We identified preoperative risk factors for PMV by univariable analysis in a retrospective cohort of pediatric LT recipients between 2011 and 2017 (n = 205; derivation cohort). We created the PROVE-ALT score by mapping multivariable logistic regression coefficients as integers, with cutoff values using the Youden Index. We validated the score by C-statistic in a retrospectively collected separate cohort of pediatric LT recipients between 2018 and 2021 (n = 133, validation cohort).</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Among total 338 patients, 21% (n = 72) were infants; 49% (n = 167) had cirrhosis; 8% (n = 27) required continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT); and 32% (n = 111) required management in hospital (MIH) before LT. Incidence of PMV post-LT was 20% (n = 69) and 3% (n = 12) required tracheostomy. Independent risk factors (OR [95% CI]) for PMV were cirrhosis (3.8 [1-14], p = .04); age <1-year (8.2 [2-30], p = .001); need for preoperative CRRT (6.3 [1.2-32], p = .02); and MIH before LT (12.4 [2.1-71], p = .004). PROVE-ALT score ≥8 [Range = 0-21] accurately predicted PMV in the validation cohort with 73% sensitivity and 80% specificity (AUC: 0.81; 95% CI: 0.71-0.91).</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>PROVE-ALT can predict PMV after pediatric LT with a high degree of sensitivity and specificity. Once externally validated in other centers, PROVE-ALT will empower clinicians to plan patient-specific ventilation strategies, provide parental anticipatory guidance, and optimize hospital resources.</p>","PeriodicalId":20038,"journal":{"name":"Pediatric Transplantation","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.2000,"publicationDate":"2024-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Pediatric Transplantation","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1111/petr.14623","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2023/10/13 0:00:00","PubModel":"Epub","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"PEDIATRICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Background: Children at high risk for prolonged mechanical ventilation (PMV) after liver transplantation (LT) need to be identified early to optimize pulmonary support, allocate resources, and improve surgical outcomes. We aimed to develop and validate a metric that can estimate risk for Prolonged Ventilation After LT (PROVE-ALT).
Methods: We identified preoperative risk factors for PMV by univariable analysis in a retrospective cohort of pediatric LT recipients between 2011 and 2017 (n = 205; derivation cohort). We created the PROVE-ALT score by mapping multivariable logistic regression coefficients as integers, with cutoff values using the Youden Index. We validated the score by C-statistic in a retrospectively collected separate cohort of pediatric LT recipients between 2018 and 2021 (n = 133, validation cohort).
Results: Among total 338 patients, 21% (n = 72) were infants; 49% (n = 167) had cirrhosis; 8% (n = 27) required continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT); and 32% (n = 111) required management in hospital (MIH) before LT. Incidence of PMV post-LT was 20% (n = 69) and 3% (n = 12) required tracheostomy. Independent risk factors (OR [95% CI]) for PMV were cirrhosis (3.8 [1-14], p = .04); age <1-year (8.2 [2-30], p = .001); need for preoperative CRRT (6.3 [1.2-32], p = .02); and MIH before LT (12.4 [2.1-71], p = .004). PROVE-ALT score ≥8 [Range = 0-21] accurately predicted PMV in the validation cohort with 73% sensitivity and 80% specificity (AUC: 0.81; 95% CI: 0.71-0.91).
Conclusion: PROVE-ALT can predict PMV after pediatric LT with a high degree of sensitivity and specificity. Once externally validated in other centers, PROVE-ALT will empower clinicians to plan patient-specific ventilation strategies, provide parental anticipatory guidance, and optimize hospital resources.
期刊介绍:
The aim of Pediatric Transplantation is to publish original articles of the highest quality on clinical experience and basic research in transplantation of tissues and solid organs in infants, children and adolescents. The journal seeks to disseminate the latest information widely to all individuals involved in kidney, liver, heart, lung, intestine and stem cell (bone-marrow) transplantation. In addition, the journal publishes focused reviews on topics relevant to pediatric transplantation as well as timely editorial comment on controversial issues.