Comparing the Trends of Vector-Borne Diseases (VBDs) before and after the COVID-19 Pandemic and Their Spatial Distribution in Southern Iran.

IF 2.1 4区 医学 Q3 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH
Journal of Tropical Medicine Pub Date : 2023-09-15 eCollection Date: 2023-01-01 DOI:10.1155/2023/7697421
Zahra Gheibi, Mitra Boroomand, Aboozar Soltani
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Objectives: We aimed to model and predict the changes in the trend of vector-borne diseases (VBDs) before and after the COVID-19 pandemic in a high-risk area of Iran.

Methods: This case-series study was conducted in Fars province, south of Iran, between April 2016 and July 2021. All referred cases of VBDs were considered during the five years to investigate the effect of the lockdown on the epidemiological profile of these diseases. We used time-series autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) models.

Results: Pediculosis incidence trend was rising with a peak of 1,146 per 100,000 in 2018, followed by a dramatic decrease reached to the minimum amount of 157.8 per 100,000 in 2021. In contrast, malaria and scabies had a smooth decreasing trend ranging from 2.2 per 100,000 and 7.3 per 100,000 in 2016 to a minimum of 0.2 per 100,000 in 2021, respectively. Likewise, leishmaniasis had a falling trend, with a maximum rate of 82.9 per 100,000 in 2016 to the lowest rate of 9.4 per 100,000 in 2021. However, the difference between observed and expected values revealed that the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic had increased the number of leishmaniasis cases.

Conclusion: Tropical regions of Iran, including Fars province, are the favorite destinations for travelers. During COVID-19 outbreaks, some reasons, such as quarantine, movement restrictions, and social distancing, reduced human-vector contact and finally led to the reduction of VBDs in this area.

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新冠肺炎大流行前后媒介传播疾病(VBD)的趋势及其在伊朗南部的空间分布比较。
目的:我们旨在建模和预测新冠肺炎大流行前后伊朗高风险地区媒介疾病(VBD)趋势的变化。方法:该病例系列研究于2016年4月至2021年7月在伊朗南部法尔斯省进行。在这五年中,考虑了所有VBD的转诊病例,以调查封锁对这些疾病流行病学特征的影响。我们使用了时间序列自回归综合移动平均(ARIMA)和季节性ARIMA(SARIMA)模型。结果:足病发病率呈上升趋势,2018年达到1146/100000的峰值,随后急剧下降,2021年达到157.8/10万的最低水平。相比之下,疟疾和疥疮呈平稳下降趋势,分别从2016年的每100000人中有2.2人和7.3人下降到2021年的最低每100000人0.2人。同样,利什曼病也有下降趋势,2016年的最高发病率为82.9/10万,2021年的最低发病率为9.4/10万。然而,观察值和预期值之间的差异表明,新冠肺炎大流行的后果增加了利什曼病病例的数量。结论:包括法尔斯省在内的伊朗热带地区是旅行者最喜欢的目的地。在新冠肺炎疫情期间,一些原因,如隔离、行动限制和社交距离,减少了人与病毒的接触,最终导致该地区VBD的减少。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
Journal of Tropical Medicine
Journal of Tropical Medicine Immunology and Microbiology-Parasitology
CiteScore
3.90
自引率
4.50%
发文量
0
审稿时长
14 weeks
期刊介绍: Journal of Tropical Medicine is a peer-reviewed, Open Access journal that publishes original research articles, review articles, and clinical studies on all aspects of tropical diseases. Articles on the pathology, diagnosis, and treatment of tropical diseases, parasites and their hosts, epidemiology, and public health issues will be considered. Journal of Tropical Medicine aims to facilitate the communication of advances addressing global health and mortality relating to tropical diseases.
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