Predicting Individual Patient Platelet Demand in a Large Tertiary Care Hospital Using Machine Learning.

Abstract

Introduction: An increasing shortage of donor blood is expected, considering the demographic change in Germany. Due to the short shelf life and varying daily fluctuations in consumption, the storage of platelet concentrates (PCs) becomes challenging. This emphasizes the need for reliable prediction of needed PCs for the blood bank inventories. Therefore, the objective of this study was to evaluate multimodal data from multiple source systems within a hospital to predict the number of platelet transfusions in 3 days on a per-patient level.

Methods: Data were collected from 25,190 (42% female and 58% male) patients between 2017 and 2021. For each patient, the number of received PCs, platelet count blood tests, drugs causing thrombocytopenia, acute platelet diseases, procedures, age, gender, and the period of a patient's hospital stay were collected. Two models were trained on samples using a sliding window of 7 days as input and a day 3 target. The model predicts whether a patient will be transfused 3 days in the future. The model was trained with an excessive hyperparameter search using patient-level repeated 5-fold cross-validation to optimize the average macro F2-score.

Results: The trained models were tested on 5,022 unique patients. The best-performing model has a specificity of 0.99, a sensitivity of 0.37, an area under the precision-recall curve score of 0.45, an MCC score of 0.43, and an F1-score of 0.43. However, the model does not generalize well for cases when the need for a platelet transfusion is recognized.

Conclusion: A patient AI-based platelet forecast could improve logistics management and reduce blood product waste. In this study, we build the first model to predict patient individual platelet demand. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to introduce this approach. Our model predicts the need for platelet units for 3 days in the future. While sensitivity underperforms, specificity performs reliably. The model may be of clinical use as a pretest for potential patients needing a platelet transfusion within the next 3 days. As sensitivity needs to be improved, further studies should introduce deep learning and wider patient characterization to the methodological multimodal, multisource data approach. Furthermore, a hospital-wide consumption of PCs could be derived from individual predictions.