Contrasting responses of spatiotemporal patterns of cropland to climate change in Northeast China

IF 5.6 1区农林科学 Q1 FOOD SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY

Food Security Pub Date : 2023-07-13 DOI:10.1007/s12571-023-01379-z

Ziyang Yu, Zhenzhen Li, Haoxuan Yang, Yihao Wang, Yang Cui, Guoping Lei, Shuai Ye

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Abstract

Understanding the relationship between climate change and cropland spatiotemporal patterns is critical for developing government policy and assisting agriculture in adapting to future climate change. The land use dataset was used to extract the area of cropland expansion and contraction as well as to calculate the cropland landscape indices. The impacts of climatic factors on the spatiotemporal patterns of cropland were quantified for different time periods by Random Forest (RF) classification and regression models, and the accuracy of the models was used as the intensity of the influence of climatic factors on cropland change. The results revealed that the total cropland area has consistently increased by 17.74% in the last four decades. The Sanjiang Plain (SJP) and Songnen Plain (SNP), with high aggregation and a simple shape of cropland landscapes, were the main regions where the cropland area has increased. Cropland landscape aggregation was low in mountainous areas. Before 2000, the total cropland area expanded more (46,748 km²) in response to the pressure to ensure food security, whereas there was less cropland loss. The accuracy of the RF model during this period revealed that the changes in cropland spatiotemporal patterns were highly influenced by climatic factors. After 2000, the climate conditions gradually became warmer and wetter. The total area of cropland increased slightly (10,587 km²) under the influence of the contradictory relationships among economic development, food production and ecological conservation, and the conversion between cropland and natural landscape types was drastic. The impact of climatic factors on changes in cropland spatiotemporal patterns has declined. Our results suggest that the response of spatiotemporal pattern changes in cropland to climatic factors differs under different policy contexts in different periods. The findings are intended to aid in the balance of agricultural production and ecological conservation in Northeast China in the face of climate change.

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东北地区农田时空格局对气候变化的响应对比

了解气候变化和农田时空模式之间的关系对于制定政府政策和帮助农业适应未来气候变化至关重要。土地利用数据集用于提取耕地扩展和收缩面积以及计算耕地景观指数。采用随机森林（RF）分类和回归模型量化了不同时间段气候因素对农田时空格局的影响，并将模型的准确性作为气候因素对耕地变化影响的强度。结果显示，在过去四十年中，耕地总面积持续增长17.74%。三江平原（SJP）和松嫩平原（SNP）是耕地面积增加的主要地区，它们具有较高的聚集性和简单的耕地景观形状。山区农田景观聚集度较低。在2000年之前，为了应对确保粮食安全的压力，耕地总面积扩大了更多（46748平方公里），而耕地损失减少了。RF模型在这一时期的准确性表明，农田时空格局的变化受到气候因素的高度影响。2000年以后，气候条件逐渐变暖和潮湿。受经济发展、粮食生产和生态保护之间矛盾关系的影响，耕地总面积略有增加（10587平方公里），耕地与自然景观类型的转换剧烈。气候因素对农田时空格局变化的影响有所减弱。研究结果表明，在不同的政策背景下，不同时期农田时空格局变化对气候因素的响应不同。这些发现旨在帮助东北地区在气候变化面前实现农业生产平衡和生态保护。

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来源期刊

Food Security FOOD SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY-

CiteScore

14.00

自引率

6.00%

发文量

审稿时长

>12 weeks

期刊介绍： Food Security is a wide audience, interdisciplinary, international journal dedicated to the procurement, access (economic and physical), and quality of food, in all its dimensions. Scales range from the individual to communities, and to the world food system. We strive to publish high-quality scientific articles, where quality includes, but is not limited to, the quality and clarity of text, and the validity of methods and approaches. Food Security is the initiative of a distinguished international group of scientists from different disciplines who hold a deep concern for the challenge of global food security, together with a vision of the power of shared knowledge as a means of meeting that challenge. To address the challenge of global food security, the journal seeks to address the constraints - physical, biological and socio-economic - which not only limit food production but also the ability of people to access a healthy diet. From this perspective, the journal covers the following areas: Global food needs: the mismatch between population and the ability to provide adequate nutrition Global food potential and global food production Natural constraints to satisfying global food needs: § Climate, climate variability, and climate change § Desertification and flooding § Natural disasters § Soils, soil quality and threats to soils, edaphic and other abiotic constraints to production § Biotic constraints to production, pathogens, pests, and weeds in their effects on sustainable production The sociological contexts of food production, access, quality, and consumption. Nutrition, food quality and food safety. Socio-political factors that impinge on the ability to satisfy global food needs: § Land, agricultural and food policy § International relations and trade § Access to food § Financial policy § Wars and ethnic unrest Research policies and priorities to ensure food security in its various dimensions.