Tuberculosis in elderly: Epidemiological profile, prognosis factors and chronological trends in Southern Tunisia, 1995-2016.

Pub Date : 2022-11-01 Epub Date: 2022-09-15 DOI:10.1177/17571774221127540

Maroua Trigui, Houda Ben Ayed, Makram Koubaa, Mariem Ben Hmida, Maissa Ben Jmaa, Sourour Yaich, Tarek Ben Jmaa, Fatma Hammami, Habib Fki, Jamel Damak, Mounir Ben Jemaa

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Abstract

Background: Tuberculosis (TB) has become a public health problem among elderly in developing countries with the gradual increase in life expectancy.

Aim/objective: This study aimed to analyze the prognosis factors and chronological trends of TB in elderly in Southern Tunisia.

Methods: A retrospective study was conducted. All TB patients aged ≥60 years, recorded in the Center of TB Control between 1995 and 2016, were included. Chronological trends of TB were analyzed by calculating the correlation coefficient of Spearman (Rho). Multivariate analysis was done by binary logistic regression (Adjusted Odds ratio (AOR); CI; p) to determine the independent risk factors associated with unsuccessful outcome in elderly. A p value <0.05 was considered as statistically significant.

Results: Overall, 512 new elderly TB cases were notified between 1995 and 2016, with an average of 23.3 new cases/year. The mean TB incidence rate for elderly was 2.31/100,000 population/year. The case-fatality rate of 8.6%. Multivariate analysis showed that factors independently associated with unsuccessful outcome among elderly patients were age between 80 and 89 (AOR = 4.5; [95% CI: 2, 10.2]; p < 0.001), male gender (AOR = 2.2; [95% CI: 1.1, 4.4]; p = 0.026) and neuro-meningeal involvement (AOR = 4.6; [95% CI: 1.4, 14.8]; p = 0.011). The incidence of TB in elderly patients increased significantly from 0.95/100,000 population in 1995 to 2.17/100,000 population in 2016 (Rho = 0.48; p = 0.024).

Discussion: A better understanding of TB features in elderly and its chronological trends overtime would facilitate to put in place, in the national TB control program, strategies geared towards this group of people.

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老年人结核病：1995-2016年突尼斯南部的流行病学概况、预后因素和时间趋势。

背景：随着预期寿命的逐渐延长，结核病已成为发展中国家老年人的公共卫生问题。目的/目的：本研究旨在分析突尼斯南部老年人结核病的预后因素和时间趋势。方法：进行回顾性研究。纳入1995年至2016年间结核病控制中心记录的所有年龄≥60岁的结核病患者。通过计算Spearman（Rho）的相关系数分析TB的时间趋势。多元分析采用二元逻辑回归（调整后的比值比（AOR）；CI；p）以确定与老年人不成功结局相关的独立风险因素。A p值结果：总体而言，1995年至2016年间，报告了512例新的老年结核病病例，平均每年新增23.3例。老年人的平均结核病发病率为2.31/100000人口/年。病死率为8.6%。多因素分析显示，与老年患者不成功结局独立相关的因素是年龄在80至89岁之间（AOR=4.5；[95%CI:210.2]；p<0.001），男性（AOR=2.2；[95%CI:1.1，4.4]；p=0.026）和神经脑膜受累（AOR=4.6；[95%CI：1.414.8]；p=0.011）。老年患者的结核病发病率从1995年的0.95/100000人口显著增加到2016年的2.17/100000人口（Rho=0.48；p=0.024）促进在国家结核病控制计划中落实针对这一群体的战略。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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