Yuanjie Qiu, Yan Wang, Nirui Shen, Qingting Wang, Limin Chai, Jian Wang, Qianqian Zhang, Yuqian Chen, Jin Liu, Danyang Li, Huan Chen, Manxiang Li
{"title":"Nomograms for Predicting Coexisting Cardiovascular Disease and Prognosis in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: A Study Based on NHANES Data.","authors":"Yuanjie Qiu, Yan Wang, Nirui Shen, Qingting Wang, Limin Chai, Jian Wang, Qianqian Zhang, Yuqian Chen, Jin Liu, Danyang Li, Huan Chen, Manxiang Li","doi":"10.1155/2022/5618376","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a common chronic disease. Progression is further exacerbated by the coexistence of cardiovascular disease (CVD). We aim to construct a diagnostic nomogram for predicting the risk of coexisting CVD and a prognostic nomogram for predicting long-term survival in COPD.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>The 540 eligible participants selected from the NHANES 2005-2010 were included in this study. Logistic regression analysis was used to construct a diagnostic nomogram for the diagnosis of coexisting CVD in COPD. Cox regression analyses were used to construct a prognostic nomogram for COPD. A risk stratification system was developed based on the total score generated from the prognostic nomogram. We used C-index and ROC curves to evaluate the discriminant ability of the newly built nomograms. The models were also validated utilizing calibration curves. Survival curves were made using the Kaplan-Meier method and compared by the Log-rank test.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Logistic regression analysis showed that gender, age, neutrophil, RDW, LDH, and HbA1c were independent predictors of coexisting CVD and were included in the diagnostic model. Cox regression analysis indicated that CVD, gender, age, BMI, RDW, albumin, LDH, creatinine, and NLR were independent predictors of COPD prognosis and were incorporated into the prognostic model. The C-index and ROC curves revealed the good discrimination abilities of the models. And the calibration curves implied that the predicted values by the nomograms were in good agreement with the actual observed values. In addition, we found that coexisting with CVD had a worse prognosis compared to those without CVD, and the prognosis of the low-risk group was better than that of the high-risk group in COPD.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>The nomograms we developed can help clinicians and patients to identify COPD coexisting CVD early and predict the 5-year and 10-year survival rates of COPD patients, which has some clinical practical values.</p>","PeriodicalId":9416,"journal":{"name":"Canadian respiratory journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.1000,"publicationDate":"2022-06-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9203208/pdf/","citationCount":"3","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Canadian respiratory journal","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1155/2022/5618376","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2022/1/1 0:00:00","PubModel":"eCollection","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"RESPIRATORY SYSTEM","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Abstract
Background: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a common chronic disease. Progression is further exacerbated by the coexistence of cardiovascular disease (CVD). We aim to construct a diagnostic nomogram for predicting the risk of coexisting CVD and a prognostic nomogram for predicting long-term survival in COPD.
Methods: The 540 eligible participants selected from the NHANES 2005-2010 were included in this study. Logistic regression analysis was used to construct a diagnostic nomogram for the diagnosis of coexisting CVD in COPD. Cox regression analyses were used to construct a prognostic nomogram for COPD. A risk stratification system was developed based on the total score generated from the prognostic nomogram. We used C-index and ROC curves to evaluate the discriminant ability of the newly built nomograms. The models were also validated utilizing calibration curves. Survival curves were made using the Kaplan-Meier method and compared by the Log-rank test.
Results: Logistic regression analysis showed that gender, age, neutrophil, RDW, LDH, and HbA1c were independent predictors of coexisting CVD and were included in the diagnostic model. Cox regression analysis indicated that CVD, gender, age, BMI, RDW, albumin, LDH, creatinine, and NLR were independent predictors of COPD prognosis and were incorporated into the prognostic model. The C-index and ROC curves revealed the good discrimination abilities of the models. And the calibration curves implied that the predicted values by the nomograms were in good agreement with the actual observed values. In addition, we found that coexisting with CVD had a worse prognosis compared to those without CVD, and the prognosis of the low-risk group was better than that of the high-risk group in COPD.
Conclusions: The nomograms we developed can help clinicians and patients to identify COPD coexisting CVD early and predict the 5-year and 10-year survival rates of COPD patients, which has some clinical practical values.
期刊介绍：
Canadian Respiratory Journal is a peer-reviewed, Open Access journal that aims to provide a multidisciplinary forum for research in all areas of respiratory medicine. The journal publishes original research articles, review articles, and clinical studies related to asthma, allergy, COPD, non-invasive ventilation, therapeutic intervention, lung cancer, airway and lung infections, as well as any other respiratory diseases.
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