An interpretation of COVID-19 in Tokyo using a combination of SIR models.

IF 4.4 3区综合性期刊 Q1 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES

Proceedings of the Japan Academy. Series B, Physical and Biological Sciences Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI:10.2183/pjab.98.006

Koichiro Maki

引用次数: 5

Abstract

A year and a half has passed since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. Mathematical models to predict infection are expected and many studies have been conducted. In this study, a new interpretation was created that could reproduce the daily positive cases in Tokyo using only a simple SIR model. In addition, the data on the ratio of transfer to delta variants could also be simulated. It is anticipated that this interpretation will be a basis for the development of forecasting methods.

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结合SIR模型对东京COVID-19的解读。

新冠肺炎疫情爆发一年半了。人们期望用数学模型来预测感染，并进行了许多研究。在本研究中，创建了一种新的解释，仅使用简单的SIR模型就可以再现东京的每日阳性病例。此外，还可以模拟传递与δ变量之比的数据。预期这种解释将成为发展预测方法的基础。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Proceedings of the Japan Academy. Series B, Physical and Biological Sciences 生物-综合性期刊

CiteScore

6.60

自引率

0.00%

发文量

审稿时长

>12 weeks

期刊介绍： The Proceedings of the Japan Academy Ser. B (PJA-B) is a scientific publication of the Japan Academy with a 90-year history, and covers all branches of natural sciences, except for mathematics, which is covered by the PJA-A. It is published ten times a year and is distributed widely throughout the world and can be read and obtained free of charge through the world wide web.