A cost-benefit analysis of COVID-19 lockdowns in Australia.

IF 1.6 Q2 ETHICS
Monash Bioethics Review Pub Date : 2022-06-01 Epub Date: 2022-01-28 DOI:10.1007/s40592-021-00148-y
Martin Lally
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引用次数: 7

Abstract

This paper conducts a cost-benefit analysis of Australia's Covid-19 lockdown strategy relative to pursuit of a mitigation strategy in March 2020. The estimated additional deaths from a mitigation strategy are 11,500 to 40,000, implying a Cost per Quality Adjusted Life Year saved by locking down of at least 11 times the generally employed figure of $100,000 for health interventions in Australia. The lockdowns do not then seem to have been justified by reference to the standard benchmark. Consideration of the information available to the Australian government in March 2020 yields a similar ratio and therefore the same conclusion that lockdown was not warranted. If Australia experiences a new outbreak, and cannot contain it without resort to a nationwide lockdown, the death toll from adopting a mitigation strategy at this point would be even less than had it done so in March 2020, due to the vaccination campaign, lessons learned since March 2020, and because the period over which the virus would then inflict casualties would now be much less than the period from March 2020. This would favour a mitigation policy even more strongly than in March 2020. This approach of assessing the savings in quality adjusted life years and comparing them to a standard benchmark figure ensures that all quality adjusted life years saved by various health interventions are treated equally, which accords with the ethical principle of equity across people.

澳大利亚COVID-19封锁的成本效益分析
本文对澳大利亚的Covid-19封锁战略相对于2020年3月实施的缓解战略进行了成本效益分析。缓解战略造成的估计额外死亡人数为11 500至40 000人,这意味着通过锁定每个质量调整生命年的成本节省的费用至少是澳大利亚通常采用的保健干预措施10万美元的11倍。根据标准基准,封锁似乎是不合理的。考虑到2020年3月澳大利亚政府获得的信息,得出了类似的比例,因此得出了同样的结论,即没有必要封锁。如果澳大利亚经历了新的疫情,并且在不采取全国封锁的情况下无法控制疫情,那么由于疫苗接种运动、2020年3月以来的经验教训,以及该病毒造成伤亡的时间现在将远远少于2020年3月以来的时间,此时采取缓解战略造成的死亡人数将比2020年3月时还要少。这将比2020年3月更有利于缓解政策。这种评估质量调整生命年节省的方法,并将其与标准基准数字进行比较,确保平等对待各种保健干预措施节省的所有质量调整生命年,这符合人人平等的道德原则。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
2.70
自引率
6.20%
发文量
16
期刊介绍: Monash Bioethics Review provides comprehensive coverage of traditional topics and emerging issues in bioethics. The Journal is especially concerned with empirically-informed philosophical bioethical analysis with policy relevance. Monash Bioethics Review also regularly publishes empirical studies providing explicit ethical analysis and/or with significant ethical or policy implications. Produced by the Monash University Centre for Human Bioethics since 1981 (originally as Bioethics News), Monash Bioethics Review is the oldest peer reviewed bioethics journal based in Australia–and one of the oldest bioethics journals in the world. An international forum for empirically-informed philosophical bioethical analysis with policy relevance. Includes empirical studies providing explicit ethical analysis and/or with significant ethical or policy implications. One of the oldest bioethics journals, produced by a world-leading bioethics centre. Publishes papers up to 13,000 words in length. Unique New Feature: All Articles Open for Commentary
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