Effects of test timing and isolation length to reduce the risk of COVID-19 infection associated with airplane travel, as determined by infectious disease dynamics modeling

IF 3 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Masashi Kamo , Michio Murakami , Seiya Imoto
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引用次数: 3

Abstract

Effective measures to reduce the risk of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection in overseas travelers are urgently needed. However, the effectiveness of current testing and isolation protocols is not yet fully understood. Here, we examined how the timing of testing and the number of tests conducted affect the spread of COVID-19 infection associated with airplane travel. We used two mathematical models of infectious disease dynamics to examine how different test protocols changed the density of infected individuals traveling by airplane and entering another country. We found that the timing of testing markedly affected the spread of COVID-19 infection. A single test conducted on the day before departure was the most effective at reducing the density of infected individuals travelling; this effectiveness decreased with increasing time before departure. After arrival, immediate testing was found to overlook individuals infected on the airplane. With respect to preventing infected individuals from entering the destination country, isolation with a single test on day 7 or 8 after arrival was comparable with isolation only for 11 or 14 days, respectively, depending on the model used, indicating that isolation length can be shortened with appropriately timed testing.

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传染病动力学模型确定的测试时间和隔离时间对降低与飞机旅行相关的COVID-19感染风险的影响
迫切需要采取有效措施,降低境外人员感染新冠肺炎的风险。然而,目前的检测和隔离协议的有效性尚不完全清楚。在这里,我们研究了检测的时间和检测的次数如何影响与飞机旅行相关的COVID-19感染的传播。我们使用传染病动力学的两个数学模型来检验不同的测试方案如何改变乘飞机旅行和进入另一个国家的感染个体的密度。我们发现,检测时间对COVID-19感染的传播有显著影响。在出发前一天进行的一次检测对减少旅行中受感染人员的密度最为有效;这种效果随着出发前时间的增加而降低。抵达后,立即检测发现忽视了飞机上的感染者。在防止感染者进入目的地国方面,根据所使用的模型,在抵达后第7天或第8天进行一次检测的隔离与分别仅进行11天或14天的隔离相当,这表明可以通过适当的时间检测缩短隔离时间。
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来源期刊
Microbial Risk Analysis
Microbial Risk Analysis Medicine-Microbiology (medical)
CiteScore
5.70
自引率
7.10%
发文量
28
审稿时长
52 days
期刊介绍: The journal Microbial Risk Analysis accepts articles dealing with the study of risk analysis applied to microbial hazards. Manuscripts should at least cover any of the components of risk assessment (risk characterization, exposure assessment, etc.), risk management and/or risk communication in any microbiology field (clinical, environmental, food, veterinary, etc.). This journal also accepts article dealing with predictive microbiology, quantitative microbial ecology, mathematical modeling, risk studies applied to microbial ecology, quantitative microbiology for epidemiological studies, statistical methods applied to microbiology, and laws and regulatory policies aimed at lessening the risk of microbial hazards. Work focusing on risk studies of viruses, parasites, microbial toxins, antimicrobial resistant organisms, genetically modified organisms (GMOs), and recombinant DNA products are also acceptable.
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