Climate anomalies, land degradation and rural out-migration in Uganda.

IF 3.2 3区 社会学 Q1 DEMOGRAPHY
Population and Environment Pub Date : 2020-06-01 Epub Date: 2020-05-30 DOI:10.1007/s11111-020-00349-3
Maia Call, Clark Gray
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Globally, rural livelihoods are increasingly challenged by the dual threats of land degradation and climate change. These issues are of particular concern in sub-Saharan Africa, where land degradation is believed to be severe and where climate change will bring higher temperatures and shifts in rainfall. To date, however, we know little about the relative effects of these various potential environmental stressors on migration. To examine these processes, we link longitudinal data from 850 Ugandan households with environmental data on soils, forests, and climate, and then analyze these data using approaches that account for potential spatial and temporal confounders. Our findings reveal that climate anomalies, rather than land degradation, are the primary contributor to environmental migration in Uganda, with heat stress of particular importance. Short hot spells increase temporary migration, an element of a diversified household livelihood strategy, while long-term heat stress induces permanent migration through an agricultural livelihoods pathway.

乌干达的气候异常、土地退化和农村人口外迁。
在全球范围内,农村生计日益受到土地退化和气候变化的双重威胁。在撒哈拉以南非洲,这些问题尤其令人担忧,因为据信那里的土地退化十分严重,而气候变化将带来气温升高和降雨量变化。然而,迄今为止,我们对这些不同的潜在环境压力因素对人口迁移的相对影响知之甚少。为了研究这些过程,我们将 850 个乌干达家庭的纵向数据与土壤、森林和气候等环境数据联系起来,然后使用考虑潜在空间和时间混杂因素的方法分析这些数据。我们的研究结果表明,气候异常而非土地退化是造成乌干达环境迁移的主要原因,其中热应力尤为重要。短时间的炎热天气会增加临时性迁移,这是多样化家庭生计战略的一个要素,而长期的热应力则会通过农业生计途径诱发永久性迁移。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
5.80
自引率
6.10%
发文量
18
期刊介绍: Population & Environment is the sole social science journal focused on interdisciplinary research on social demographic aspects of environmental issues. The journal publishes cutting-edge research that contributes new insights on the complex, reciprocal links between human populations and the natural environment in all regions and countries of the world. Quantitative, qualitative or mixed methods contributions are welcome. Disciplines commonly represented in the journal include demography, geography, sociology, human ecology, environmental economics, public health, anthropology and environmental studies. The journal publishes original research, research brief, and review articles.
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