Projection of COVID-19 intensive care hospitalizations in the Federal District, Brazil: an analysis of the impact of social distancing measures.

Epidemiologia e servicos de saude : revista do Sistema Unico de Saude do Brasil Pub Date : 2020-12-14 eCollection Date: 2020-01-01 DOI:10.1590/S1679-49742020000500022

Ivan Zimmermann, Mauro Sanchez, Jonas Brant, Domingos Alves

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引用次数: 3

Abstract

Objective: To build scenarios and analyze the impact of social distancing policies on the spread of COVID-19 and the need for intensive care unit beds.

Methods: Three dissemination scenarios were built according to level of adherence to social distancing measures in the context of Brazil's Federal District, based on a dynamic transition compartmental model and Monte Carlo simulations. The model's parameter values were based on official sources, indexed bibliographic databases and public data repositories.

Results: The favorable scenario, with constant 58% adherence to social distancing, estimated a peak of 189 (interquartile range [IQR]: 57 - 394) ICU hospitalizations on March 3rd2021. Absence of social distancing would result in an unfavorable scenario with a peak of 6,214 (IQR: 4,618 - 8,415) ICU hospitalizations probably as soon as July 14th2020.

Conclusion: The projections indicate the high impact of social distancing measures and emphasize the applicability of public indicators for COVID-19 monitoring.

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巴西联邦区COVID-19重症监护住院人数预测:社会距离措施影响分析

目的:构建情景模型，分析社会距离政策对新冠肺炎疫情传播和重症监护病床需求的影响。方法:基于动态过渡区隔模型和蒙特卡罗模拟，根据巴西联邦区遵守社会距离措施的程度，构建了三种传播情景。该模型的参数值基于官方来源、索引书目数据库和公共数据存储库。结果:在良好的情况下，58%的人坚持保持社交距离，估计2021年3月3日重症监护病房住院人数为189人(四分位数间距[IQR]: 57 - 394)。如果不保持社交距离，最快可能在2020年7月14日，重症监护病房住院人数将达到6214人(IQR: 4618 - 8415人)的峰值。结论:预测结果表明社会距离措施的影响较大，并强调了公共指标在COVID-19监测中的适用性。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Epidemiologia e servicos de saude : revista do Sistema Unico de Saude do Brasil

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