Visceral Leishmaniasis: temporal and spatial distribution in Fortaleza, Ceará State, Brazil, 2007-2017.

Epidemiologia e servicos de saude : revista do Sistema Unico de Saude do Brasil Pub Date : 2020-12-02 eCollection Date: 2020-01-01 DOI:10.1590/S1679-49742020000500002

Clarice Pessoa Almeida, Francisco Roger Aguiar Cavalcante, Jarier de Oliveira Moreno, Caroline Mary Gurgel Dias Florêncio, Kellyn Kessiene de Sousa Cavalcante, Carlos Henrique Alencar

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引用次数: 4

Abstract

Objective: To analyze the temporal trend and describe the spatial distribution of Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL) in Fortaleza from 2007 to 2017.

Methods: This was an ecological study using segmented temporal regression and thematic mapping.

Results: Between 2007-2017, 1,660 new cases and 97 deaths were confirmed. The overall incidence rate showed a rising trend (Annual Percent Change - APC=8.7% - 95%CI -3.3;34.1), while the mortality rate (APC=-25.9 - 95%CI -48.5;-10.6) and lethality (APC=-33.0 - 95%CI -53.7;-17.6) showed a falling trend. From 2010-2015 the incidence rate fell (APC=-15.8 - 95%CI -25.1;-4.0), but mortality (APC=18.7 - 95%CI 9.4;50.6) and lethality (APC=40.1 - 95%CI 22.5;72.0) had an upward trend. In 2015-2017, incidence (APC=-24.6 - 95%CI -36.2;-10.3), and mortality (APC=-44.6 - 95%CI -58.8;-17,6) fell, while lethality remained stable (APC=-13.5 - 95%CI -38.7;3.8). High incidence neighborhoods were clustered in the western region of the city, however, mortality and lethality did not present defined spatial patterns.

Conclusion: VL is endemic in Fortaleza, although there was a reduction in the last three years studied.

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内脏利什曼病:2007-2017年巴西塞埃尔州福塔莱萨的时空分布

目的:分析2007 - 2017年福塔莱萨市内脏利什曼病(VL)的时间趋势和空间分布特征。方法:采用分段时间回归和专题制图法进行生态学研究。结果:2007-2017年，共确诊1660例新发病例和97例死亡。总发病率呈上升趋势(年度百分比变化- APC=8.7% - 95%CI -3.3;34.1)，死亡率(APC=-25.9 - 95%CI -48.5;-10.6)和致死率(APC=-33.0 - 95%CI -53.7;-17.6)呈下降趋势。2010-2015年发病率呈下降趋势(APC=-15.8 ~ 95%CI -25.1;-4.0)，但死亡率(APC=18.7 ~ 95%CI 9.4;50.6)和致死率(APC=40.1 ~ 95%CI 22.5;72.0)呈上升趋势。2015-2017年，发病率(APC=-24.6 - 95%CI -36.2;-10.3)和死亡率(APC=-44.6 - 95%CI -58.8;- 17.6)下降，致死率保持稳定(APC=-13.5 - 95%CI -38.7;3.8)。高发街区集中在城市西部，但死亡率和致死率没有明确的空间分布规律。结论:VL在福塔莱萨是地方性的，尽管在过去三年的研究中有所减少。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Epidemiologia e servicos de saude : revista do Sistema Unico de Saude do Brasil

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