Age-period-cohort analysis of asthma, allergic rhinitis, and atopic dermatitis prevalence in Japan.

Environmental analysis, health and toxicology Pub Date : 2020-09-01 Epub Date: 2020-07-16 DOI:10.5620/eaht.2020012
Tasuku Okui
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引用次数: 6

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the trends in the Japanese prevalence of asthma, allergic rhinitis, and atopic dermatitis by using age-period-cohort (APC) analysis. Data regarding the prevalence of diseases from 1999 to 2017 were collected from Patient Survey in Japan. The data were divided according to age groups ranging from 0-4 years old up to 65-69 years old in 5-year increments. A cohort was defined for each age group of each year with a one-year shift, and cohorts born from 1930-1934 up to 2013-2017 were examined. We used Bayesian APC analysis to decompose the changes in prevalence into age, period, and cohort effects. Results show that the period effect for asthma began to increase in 2008, and those of allergic rhinitis and atopic dermatitis began to increase in 1999. The cohort effects for asthma and atopic dermatitis increased rapidly in cohorts born from approximately 1950 to 1980 and then decreased thereafter. Furthermore, the cohort effect for allergic rhinitis increased from cohorts born in approximately the late 1970s for men and in 1990 for women. The time points with increasing cohort effects for asthma and atopic dermatitis are consistent with the history of air pollution accompanied by rapid economic growth in Japan. The onset of the increased cohort effect for allergic rhinitis was also relatively consistent with the time point at which the mass scattering of pollen began.

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日本哮喘、过敏性鼻炎和特应性皮炎患病率的年龄-时期队列分析。
本研究旨在通过年龄-时期-队列(APC)分析日本哮喘、过敏性鼻炎和特应性皮炎的流行趋势。1999年至2017年的疾病流行数据来自日本患者调查。数据按年龄分组,从0-4岁到65-69岁,以5年为单位进行分组。每年为每个年龄组定义一个队列,轮换一年,并对1930-1934年至2013-2017年出生的队列进行检查。我们使用贝叶斯APC分析将患病率的变化分解为年龄、时期和队列效应。结果表明:哮喘的周期效应从2008年开始增强,变应性鼻炎和特应性皮炎的周期效应从1999年开始增强。哮喘和特应性皮炎的队列效应在大约1950年至1980年出生的队列中迅速增加,随后下降。此外,过敏性鼻炎的队列效应在大约20世纪70年代末出生的男性和1990年出生的女性中有所增加。哮喘和特应性皮炎队列效应增加的时间点与日本伴随经济快速增长的空气污染史一致。变应性鼻炎队列效应的增加也与花粉开始大量扩散的时间点相对一致。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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