Polar Climate Change as Manifest in Atmospheric Circulation.

IF 9.3 1区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Current climate change reports Pub Date : 2018-01-01 Epub Date: 2018-08-02 DOI:10.1007/s40641-018-0111-4

J A Screen, T J Bracegirdle, I Simmonds

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引用次数: 104

Abstract

Purpose of review: Dynamic manifestations of climate change, i.e. those related to circulation, are less well understood than are thermodynamic, or temperature-related aspects. However, this knowledge gap is narrowing. We review recent progress in understanding the causes of observed changes in polar tropospheric and stratospheric circulation, and in interpreting climate model projections of their future changes.

Recent findings: Trends in the annular modes reflect the influences of multiple drivers. In the Northern Hemisphere, there appears to be a "tug-of-war" between the opposing effects of Arctic near-surface warming and tropical upper tropospheric warming, two predominant features of the atmospheric response to increasing greenhouse gases. Future trends in the Southern Hemisphere largely depend on the competing effects of stratospheric ozone recovery and increasing greenhouse gases.

Summary: Human influence on the Antarctic circulation is detectable in the strengthening of the stratospheric polar vortex and the poleward shift of the tropospheric westerly winds. Observed Arctic circulation changes cannot be confidently separated from internal atmospheric variability.

Abstract Image

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极地气候变化在大气环流中的表现。

综述的目的：气候变化的动态表现，即与环流有关的表现，不如热力学或温度有关的表现更容易理解。然而，这种知识差距正在缩小。我们回顾了最近在理解极地对流层和平流层环流观测变化的原因以及解释气候模型对其未来变化的预测方面取得的进展。最近的发现：环形模式的趋势反映了多种驱动因素的影响。在北半球，北极近地表变暖和热带对流层上层变暖的对立影响之间似乎存在“拉锯战”，这是大气对温室气体增加反应的两个主要特征。南半球未来的趋势在很大程度上取决于平流层臭氧恢复和温室气体增加的竞争效应。摘要：人类对南极环流的影响可以从平流层极地涡旋的增强和对流层西风的极地移动中检测到。观测到的北极环流变化不能完全与内部大气变化分开。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Current climate change reports Environmental Science-Global and Planetary Change

CiteScore

20.30

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： Current Climate Change Reports is dedicated to exploring the most recent research and policy issues in the dynamically evolving field of Climate Change. The journal covers a broad spectrum of topics, encompassing Ecological Impacts, Advances in Modeling, Sea Level Projections, Extreme Events, Climate Feedback and Sensitivity, Hydrologic Impact, Effects on Human Health, and Economics and Policy Issues. Expert contributors provide reviews on the latest research, assess the effectiveness of available options, and engage in discussions about special considerations. All articles undergo a thorough peer-review process by specialists in the field to ensure accuracy and objectivity.