Epidemiology of the Zika Virus Outbreak in the Cabo Verde Islands, West Africa.

PLoS currents Pub Date : 2018-03-15 DOI:10.1371/currents.outbreaks.19433b1e4d007451c691f138e1e67e8c

José Lourenço, Maria de Lourdes Monteiro, Tomás Valdez, Júlio Monteiro Rodrigues, Oliver Pybus, Nuno Rodrigues Faria

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Abstract

Introduction: The Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreak in the island nation of Cabo Verde was of unprecedented magnitude in Africa and the first to be associated with microcephaly in the continent.

Methods: Using a simple mathematical framework we present a first epidemiological assessment of attack and observation rates from 7,580 ZIKV notified cases and 18 microcephaly reports between July 2015 and May 2016.

Results: In line with observations from the Americas and elsewhere, the single-wave Cabo Verdean ZIKV epidemic was characterized by a basic reproductive number of 1.85 (95% CI, 1.5 - 2.2), with overall the attack rate of 51.1% (range 42.1 - 61.1) and observation rate of 2.7% (range 2.29 - 3.33).

Conclusion: Current herd-immunity may not be sufficient to prevent future small-to-medium epidemics in Cabo Verde. Together with a small observation rate, these results highlight the need for rapid and integrated epidemiological, molecular and genomic surveillance to tackle forthcoming outbreaks of ZIKV and other arboviruses.

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西非佛得角群岛寨卡病毒爆发的流行病学。

导言:在佛得角岛国暴发的寨卡病毒(ZIKV)疫情在非洲规模空前，也是该大陆首次与小头症相关。方法:采用简单的数学框架，首次对2015年7月至2016年5月期间报告的7580例寨卡病毒通报病例和18例小头症报告病例的发作率和观察率进行流行病学评估。结果:与美洲和其他地区的观察结果一致，佛得角寨卡病毒单波流行的特征是基本繁殖数为1.85 (95% CI, 1.5 ~ 2.2)，总体发病率为51.1%(42.1 ~ 61.1)，观察率为2.7%(2.29 ~ 3.33)。结论:目前的群体免疫可能不足以预防佛得角未来的中小型流行病。再加上观察率很小，这些结果强调需要进行快速和综合的流行病学、分子和基因组监测，以应对即将到来的寨卡病毒和其他虫媒病毒暴发。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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PLoS currents

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