Modelling human Puumala hantavirus infection in relation to bank vole abundance and masting intensity in the Netherlands.

Q1 Environmental Science
Infection Ecology and Epidemiology Pub Date : 2017-03-24 eCollection Date: 2017-01-01 DOI:10.1080/20008686.2017.1287986
Arno Swart, Dick L Bekker, Miriam Maas, Ankje de Vries, Roan Pijnacker, Chantal B E M Reusken, Joke W B van der Giessen
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引用次数: 7

Abstract

This paper deals with modelling the relationship between human Puumala hantavirus (PUUV) infection, the abundance and prevalence of infection of the host (the bank vole), mast, and temperature. These data were used to build and parametrise generalised regression models, and parametrise them using datasets on these factors pertaining to the Netherlands. The performance of the models was assessed by considering their predictive power. Models including mast and monthly temperature performed well, and showed that mast intensity influences vole abundance and hence human exposure for the following year. Thus, the model can aid in forecasting of human illness cases, since (1) mast intensity influences the vole abundance and hence human exposure for the following year and (2) monitoring of mast is much more feasible than determining bank vole abundance.

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模拟人类普马拉汉坦病毒感染与荷兰银行田鼠丰度和密集程度的关系。
本文建立了人类普马拉汉坦病毒(PUUV)感染、宿主(田鼠)感染的丰度和流行度、肥大和温度之间的关系模型。这些数据用于建立和参数化广义回归模型,并使用与荷兰有关的这些因素的数据集参数化它们。通过考虑模型的预测能力来评估模型的性能。包括桅杆和月温度在内的模型表现良好,并表明桅杆强度影响田鼠的丰度,从而影响次年的人类暴露。因此,该模型可以帮助预测人类疾病病例,因为(1)桅杆强度影响田鼠丰度,从而影响次年的人类暴露;(2)桅杆监测比确定河岸田鼠丰度更可行。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
Infection Ecology and Epidemiology
Infection Ecology and Epidemiology Environmental Science-Environmental Science (miscellaneous)
CiteScore
8.70
自引率
0.00%
发文量
4
审稿时长
12 weeks
期刊介绍: Infection Ecology & Epidemiology aims to stimulate inter-disciplinary collaborations dealing with a range of subjects, from the plethora of zoonotic infections in humans, over diseases with implication in wildlife ecology, to advanced virology and bacteriology. The journal specifically welcomes papers from studies where researchers from multiple medical and ecological disciplines are collaborating so as to increase our knowledge of the emergence, spread and effect of new and re-emerged infectious diseases in humans, domestic animals and wildlife. Main areas of interest include, but are not limited to: 1.Zoonotic microbioorganisms 2.Vector borne infections 3.Gastrointestinal pathogens 4.Antimicrobial resistance 5.Zoonotic microbioorganisms in changing environment
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