Arno Swart, Dick L Bekker, Miriam Maas, Ankje de Vries, Roan Pijnacker, Chantal B E M Reusken, Joke W B van der Giessen
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引用次数: 7
Abstract
This paper deals with modelling the relationship between human Puumala hantavirus (PUUV) infection, the abundance and prevalence of infection of the host (the bank vole), mast, and temperature. These data were used to build and parametrise generalised regression models, and parametrise them using datasets on these factors pertaining to the Netherlands. The performance of the models was assessed by considering their predictive power. Models including mast and monthly temperature performed well, and showed that mast intensity influences vole abundance and hence human exposure for the following year. Thus, the model can aid in forecasting of human illness cases, since (1) mast intensity influences the vole abundance and hence human exposure for the following year and (2) monitoring of mast is much more feasible than determining bank vole abundance.
期刊介绍:
Infection Ecology & Epidemiology aims to stimulate inter-disciplinary collaborations dealing with a range of subjects, from the plethora of zoonotic infections in humans, over diseases with implication in wildlife ecology, to advanced virology and bacteriology. The journal specifically welcomes papers from studies where researchers from multiple medical and ecological disciplines are collaborating so as to increase our knowledge of the emergence, spread and effect of new and re-emerged infectious diseases in humans, domestic animals and wildlife. Main areas of interest include, but are not limited to: 1.Zoonotic microbioorganisms 2.Vector borne infections 3.Gastrointestinal pathogens 4.Antimicrobial resistance 5.Zoonotic microbioorganisms in changing environment