Uncertainty in economic evaluation studies.

Abstract

As we could see in the previous articles of the economic evaluation series, there is a large set of information required for decision makers on health expenditures and outcomes, and the way they spread over time. In order to obtain this information, epidemiological, economic, mathematical and statistical methods are used, but they all have limitations which are inherent to any scientific method. During the development process of economic evaluation, some uncertainties may arise, which can substantially impact the main findings of the analysis. When uncertainty is considered, researchers try to quantify the influence of data and adopted assumptions on the conclusion of the research. This article outlines three types of uncertainty in economic evaluation: methodological, structural and parameter.