{"title":"Change point detection for COVID-19 excess deaths in Belgium.","authors":"Han Lin Shang, Ruofan Xu","doi":"10.1007/s12546-021-09256-2","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Emerging at the end of 2019, COVID-19 has become a public health threat to people worldwide. Apart from deaths with a positive COVID-19 test, many others have died from causes indirectly related to COVID-19. Therefore, the COVID-19 confirmed deaths underestimate the influence of the pandemic on society; instead, the measure of 'excess deaths' is a more objective and comparable way to assess the scale of the epidemic and formulate lessons. One common practical issue in analysing the impact of COVID-19 is to determine the 'pre-COVID-19' period and the 'post-COVID-19' period. We apply a change point detection method to identify any change points using excess deaths in Belgium.</p>","PeriodicalId":45624,"journal":{"name":"JOURNAL OF POPULATION RESEARCH","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.6000,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1007/s12546-021-09256-2","citationCount":"5","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"JOURNAL OF POPULATION RESEARCH","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s12546-021-09256-2","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2021/3/6 0:00:00","PubModel":"Epub","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"DEMOGRAPHY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
Abstract
Emerging at the end of 2019, COVID-19 has become a public health threat to people worldwide. Apart from deaths with a positive COVID-19 test, many others have died from causes indirectly related to COVID-19. Therefore, the COVID-19 confirmed deaths underestimate the influence of the pandemic on society; instead, the measure of 'excess deaths' is a more objective and comparable way to assess the scale of the epidemic and formulate lessons. One common practical issue in analysing the impact of COVID-19 is to determine the 'pre-COVID-19' period and the 'post-COVID-19' period. We apply a change point detection method to identify any change points using excess deaths in Belgium.
期刊介绍：
The Journal of Population Research is a peer-reviewed, international journal which publishes papers on demography and population-related issues. Coverage is not restricted geographically. The Journal publishes substantive empirical analyses, theoretical works, applied research and contributions to methodology. Submissions may take the form of original research papers, perspectives, review articles and shorter technical research notes. Special issues emanating from conferences and other meetings are also considered.
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