Forecasting of top athletic performance.

Abstract

The limiting factors of top athletic performance and the psycho-physiological mechanisms involved remain controversial. The aim of this study was to attempt a prediction of world records (WR) for the next ten years in five athletic track and field and events. Our prediction has been produced by means of computer--aided mathematical models. In short, polynomials that could best approximate the WR of the last decades have been calculated and projected over the period 2000-2010. The predicted values for the year 2010 point to an improvement rate of the WR considered varying between 0.2% and 10.3%, depending on event and gender. Those values could be influenced by the use of better sports equipment, better nutrition and training and especially by the impact of doping and of anti-doping measures.