A generalized stable model with fluctuating vital rates.

Abstract

The amenability of the stable population model to certain situations where net maternity function need not be invariant over time is exemplified by relating the changes in fertility at 2 time points by the equation m(a,t) = m(a) h(a,t)/h(t) where the form of h(t) is general and can be determined based on observed birth trajectories. Using the extended form of Easterlin's hypothesis, h(t) is taken as the reciprocal of NRR at t. The model is then applied to project NRR.